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[California Energy Commission Letterhead]
 

In the Matter of: )      Docket No. 06-IEP-1B
  )        
  )      NOTICE OF STAFF WORKSHOP
 Preparation of the )     
 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report )     
 (2007 IEPR) )        
_________________________________________ )       


Notice of Staff Workshop on Transportation
Energy Demand and Import Infrastructure Requirements

The California Energy Commission's (Energy Commission) Fuels and Transportation Division will conduct a staff workshop to describe the methods, data, and assumptions to be used to prepare transportation energy demand forecasts and infrastructure needs assessments for the 2007 IEPR. The workshop is intended to receive input from stakeholders. Two Energy Commission Committees oversee the work on this subject: the IEPR Committee, with Chairman Jackalyne Pfannenstiel as the Presiding Member and Commissioner John L. Geesman as the Associate Member; and the Transportation Committee, with Vice Chair James Boyd as the Presiding Member and Commissioner Jeffrey Byron as the Associate Member. Commissioners may attend and participate in this workshop. The workshop will be held:

TUESDAY, MAY 8, 2007
9 a.m.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
1516 Ninth Street
First Floor, Hearing Room A
Sacramento, California
(Wheelchair Accessible)

Note: Audio from this hearing will be broadcast over the Internet.
For details on listening in, please go to: www.energy.ca.gov/webcast/

Parties unable to attend this staff workshop can comment by conference call.

The conference call information is: USA Toll Free Number: 800-857-6618
Passcode: IEPR, Call Leader: Ms. Lorraine White

Purpose

This workshop will discuss the proposed methods, inputs, and assumptions to be used to develop various transportation energy demand forecasts. Staff will present two draft products, the petroleum transportation fuels price forecasts and the crude oil imports forecast. Staff will also discuss work-in-progress, including models and inputs used to produce transportation energy demand forecasts for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Staff will present a framework for determining state petroleum import infrastructure requirements that will require assumptions and quantification regarding future California and neighboring state transportation energy demand, state and regional refinery capacity growth, and in-state crude oil production declines. This workshop is designed to receive public input from interested stakeholders on the proposed analyses and related questions and issues and will be used in the development of the 2007 IEPR.

Summary of Proposed Forecasts and Analyses

The Fossil Fuels Office of the Fuels and Transportation Division develops forecasts and analyses of the transportation fuels industry and related markets. Transportation energy demand and fuel price forecasts support several related energy policy and program activities, including AB 1007 alternative vehicle and fuel technology analysis, petroleum use reduction assessment, and petroleum infrastructure requirements assessment. Inputs to the demand forecasts include: transportation fuel price forecasts; economic and demographic data and projections; surveys of vehicle purchase and use by residential households and commercial fleets; vehicle registration data; and projections of vehicle manufacturer offerings. The assessments of future petroleum import infrastructure requirements are developed from historic data and projections for transportation fuel demand, refinery distillation and process capacity, and rates of crude oil production decline in California. The focus of the infrastructure analysis will primarily be on marine import infrastructure. However, information on pipeline and truck-borne exports and rail-borne imports is also necessary to determine inter-state energy flows.

Staff will present an overview of the proposed forecasting methods, and preliminary findings for the transportation fuels price forecasts and crude oil import projections. Other methods, inputs, and work-in-progress will be discussed, such as demand forecasting models, household and commercial fleet surveys, vehicle attribute projections, and data sources. Staff will also invite public comment on both the proposed approaches and other suggested alternatives.

Among the questions on which Energy Commission staff request public input are:

  1. What will long-term petroleum transportation fuel prices be, both in absolute terms and relative to alternative fuels? To what extent will this be due to global crude oil prices and market conditions and to what extent due to national and regional fuels market factors?


  2. At what rates will gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel demand grow in California? At what rates will gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel demand grow in dependent neighboring states such as Nevada and Arizona?


  3. What estimates are available for current demand and projected growth rates of off-road uses of gasoline and diesel?


  4. At what rate will California crude oil production decline? Will crude quality and characteristics change significantly and what effects will that have on refinery operations?


  5. At what rate will in-state refinery distillation or process capacities increase, if at all? What are the limits or constraints on refinery capacity increases? Will any out-of-state refinery capacity growth affect California fuels markets?


  6. What increases in throughput capacity of crude oil or fuels import infrastructure are expected in the state? What are the limits or constraints on such import capacity increases?


  7. What effect will increasing use of alternative transportation fuels have on gasoline and diesel demand? What effect will it have on import infrastructure for both traditional petroleum fuels and alternative fuels?

Staff papers describing current or proposed work and an agenda will be released before the workshop.

Background

As required by Senate Bill 1389 (Stats. 2002, Ch. 568) the Energy Commission conducts "assessments and forecasts of all aspects of energy industry supply, production, transportation, delivery and distribution, demand, and prices." The Energy Commission uses these assessments and forecasts to develop energy policies that conserve resources, protect the environment, ensure energy reliability, enhance the state's economy, and protect public health and safety. (Public Resources Code [PRC] § 25301(a)) The Energy Commission adopts the IEPR every odd-numbered year and in even-numbered years adopts an energy policy review to update analysis from the previous IEPR or to raise energy issues that have emerged since the previous proceeding. (PRC § 25302(d))

Workshop Participation and Comments

The Energy Commission staff requests participation of interested parties in this workshop and proceeding and encourages interested parties to present their views either orally at the workshop or through written comments. The staff will take general comment from the public immediately following the workshop presentations.

Parties should provide comments regarding the questions and proposed staff analysis, both orally at the workshop and in writing. Written comments must be submitted by 5 p.m. on May 18, 2007. Comments submitted before the workshop will be used to facilitate the discussion. Include the docket number No. 06-IEP-1B and indicate 2007 IEPR - Transportation Energy Forecasts in the subject line or first paragraph of your comments. The Energy Commission encourages comments by electronic mail (e-mail). Please include your name or organization in the name of the file. Those submitting comments by e-mail should provide them in either Microsoft Word format or as a Portable Document File (PDF) to [docket@energy.state.ca.us].

One paper copy must also be sent to the Energy Commission's Docket Unit. If the original is more than 20 pages, please also provide 12 paper copies to:

California Energy Commission
Dockets Office, MS-4
Re: Docket No. 06-IEP-1M
1516 Ninth Street
Sacramento, CA 95814-5512

Participants may also provide an original and 12 copies at the beginning of the workshop. All written materials relating to this workshop will be filed with the Dockets Unit and become part of the public record in this proceeding.

Additional Information

The Energy Commission's Public Adviser provides the public assistance in participating in Energy Commission activities. If you would like information on how to participate in this workshop, please contact the Public Adviser's Office by phone at (916) 654-4489 or toll-free at (800) 822-6228, by FAX at (916) 654-4493, or by e-mail at [pao@energy.state.ca.us]. If you have a disability and require assistance to participate in this hearing, please contact Lou Quiroz at (916) 654-5146 at least five days in advance.

The service list for the 2007 IEPR proceeding is handled electronically. Notices and documents for these proceedings are posted to the Energy Commission website [http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007_energypolicy/]. When new information is posted, an e-mail will be sent to those on the energy policy e-mail list server. We encourage those who are interested in receiving these notices to sign up for the list server through the website [http://www.energy.ca.gov/listservers/index.html].

Questions regarding the 2007 IEPR proceeding should be directed to Lorraine White, IEPR program manager, at (916) 654-4075 or by e-mail at [lwhite@energy.state.ca.us]. For technical questions regarding the transportation energy forecasts subject matter of this workshop, please contact Jim Page by phone at (916) 654-4886, or by e-mail at [jpage@energy.state.ca.us]. Please direct all news media inquiries to Claudia Chandler, Assistant Executive Director, at (916) 654-4989.

Note: California Energy Commission's formal name is State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission.

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