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[California Energy Commission Letterhead]
 

In the Matter of: )      Docket No. 06-IEP-1I
  )                     06-IEP-1J
Preparation of the )       
2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report )       
(2007 IEPR) )       
_________________________________________ )      NOTICE OF COMMITTEE WORKSHOP


Notice of Committee Workshop on 2008 Peak Demand
Forecast and Summer 2007 Supply and Demand Outlook



The California Energy Commission's (Energy Commission) Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Committee (the Committee) will conduct a workshop to obtain comments on (1) the staff's proposed forecast of 2008 peak demand, and (2) assumptions and methodologies in the staff supply and demand outlook. Chairman Jackalyne Pfannenstiel is the Presiding Member, and Commissioner John L. Geesman is the Associate Member of the Committee. Other Commissioners may attend and participate in the workshop. The workshop will be held:

THURSDAY, MAY 24, 2007
10 a.m.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
1516 Ninth Street
First Floor, Hearing Room A
Sacramento, California
(Wheelchair Accessible)

Note: Audio from this hearing will be broadcast over the Internet.
For details on listening in, please go to: www.energy.ca.gov/webcast/

Parties unable to attend this Committee workshop can comment by conference call.

The conference call information is: USA Toll Free Number: 800-857-6618
Passcode: IEPR, Call Leader: Lorraine White.

Purpose

This workshop will cover two separate but related topics.

First, the Committee requests comments on the staff's proposed forecast of 2008 peak demand. Energy Commission staff will present their analysis of summer 2006 loads in the Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), Sacramento Metropolitan Utility District (SMUD), and Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) planning areas, and their updated forecasts of 2008 peak demand for those planning areas and for the major LSEs in those areas. The staff's assessment of weather-adjusted demand in each area will serve as the starting point for the updated peak demand forecast.

In addition to its use in the Energy Commission supply and demand outlook, this forecast will serve as a reference case in the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) resource adequacy process and therefore may affect commitment responsibilities for CPUC-jurisdictional load serving entities (LSEs). It may also be used by the California Independent System Operator (CA ISO) for allocating import capabilities among LSEs in the CA ISO. The Committee seeks the participation of the state's major utilities, including PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, LADWP, and SMUD, as well as other interested parties in this workshop. Utilities are requested to provide their peak demand forecasts for summer 2008 and comment on the Energy Commission staff's forecast and methods. All presenters should be prepared to discuss methods used in developing their forecasts. A staff report describing the staff analysis and proposed forecast will be released before the workshop.

Second, the Committee requests comments on the current Summer 2007 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook and staff's proposals for the Summer 2008 and Five Year Electricity Supply Demand Outlook that will be published this fall. The results of the Summer 2007 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook were presented publicly to the Assembly on March 29, 2007 as well as Energy Action Plan meetings on December 11, 2006 and again on May 22, 2007. A staff report describing assumptions and methodologies used for the Summer 2007 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook and proposed topics and studies to be added to the Summer 2008 and Five Year Electricity Supply Demand Outlook will be published prior to the workshop. In order to provide a useful, relevant, and comprehensive assessment, the Committee seeks the participation of the state's major utilities, independent system operators, generators and other interested parties in this process.

Background

In Decision 05-10-042 (October 27, 2005) the CPUC determined that the Energy Commission demand forecast, as the "state's official load forecast," should serve as the reference case in the CPUC resource adequacy load forecast review and adjustment process. In the event that the sum of the forecasts submitted by load serving entities is more than one percent different than the Commission forecast, Energy Commission staff will adjust the LSE forecasts to within one percent. The LSEs must use these adjusted forecasts in their year-ahead showing, due on September 30, 2007, of a 90 percent forward commitment. Energy Commission staff must distribute the adjusted forecasts to LSEs by June 30, 2007.

The most recent adopted Energy Commission demand forecast was completed in June 2006. (June 2006, Staff Forecast Of 2007 Peak Demand, http://www.energy.ca.gov/2006publications/CEC-400-2006-008/CEC-400-2006-008-SF.PDF.) This forecast was based on historic energy consumption and peak demand through the year 2005. To update this forecast and extend it to monthly peak values for use in the 2008 resource adequacy process, staff has evaluated recorded loads and weather for the summer of 2006 to evaluate the extent to which the forecast should be revised. Staff will publish its revised long run forecast of energy and peak demand in June 2007 for a July 2007 workshop.

The Summer 2007 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook is the Energy Commission staff's current assessment of the overall capability of the physical electricity system to provide power to meet electricity demand in four regions - California Statewide, CA ISO Control Area, CA ISO North of Path 26 (NP 26), and CA ISO South of Path 26 (SP 26).

Staff is continuing with its development of a full probabilistic assessment to enhance the deterministic tables we have historically provided. This probabilistic assessment evaluates the complete range of possible demand scenarios as well as generation and transmission forced outage occurrences based on historical data and assesses the possibility of three adverse conditions occurring simultaneously.

Workshop Participation and Comments

The IEPR Committee requests participation of interested parties in this workshop and proceeding and encourages interested parties to present their views either orally at the workshop or through written comments. The IEPR Committee will take general comment from the public immediately following the workshop presentations.

Parties should provide comments both orally at the workshop and in writing. Written comments are requested by 5 p.m. on June 1, 2007. Comments submitted before the workshop will be used to facilitate the discussion. For comments on the demand forecast, include the docket number No. 06-IEP-1I and indicate 2007 IEPR - Demand Forecast in the subject line or first paragraph of your comments. For comments on the supply-demand outlook, include the docket number No. 06-IEP-1J and indicate 2007 IEPR Supply Demand Outlook in the subject line or first paragraph of your comments. The Energy Commission encourages comments by e-mail. Please include your name or organization in the name of the file. Those submitting comments by electronic mail should provide them in either Microsoft Word format or as a Portable Document File (PDF) to docket@energy.state.ca.us.

One paper copy must also be sent to the Energy Commission's Docket Unit. If the original is more than 20 pages, please also provide 12 paper copies to:

California Energy Commission
Dockets Office, MS-4
Re: Docket No. 06-IEP-1I (Peak Demand Forecast) or
Re: Docket No. 06-IEP-1J (Supply and Demand Outlook) or
1516 Ninth Street
Sacramento, CA 95814-5512

Participants may also provide the original and 12 copies at the beginning of the workshop. All written materials relating to this workshop will be filed with the Dockets Unit and become part of the public record in this proceeding.

Additional Information

The Energy Commission's Public Adviser provides the public assistance in participating in Energy Commission activities. If you would like information on how to participate in this workshop, please contact the Public Adviser's Office by phone at (916) 654-4489 or toll-free at (800) 822-6228, by FAX at (916) 654-4493, or by e-mail at pao@energy.state.ca.us. If you have a disability and require assistance to participate in this hearing, please contact Lou Quiroz at (916) 654-5146 at least five days in advance.

The service list for the 2007 IEPR proceeding is handled electronically. Notices and documents for these proceedings are posted to the Energy Commission website http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007_energypolicy/. When new information is posted, an e-mail will be sent to those on the energy policy e-mail list server. We encourage those who are interested in receiving these notices to sign up for the list server through the website http://www.energy.ca.gov/listservers/index.html.

Questions regarding the 2007 IEPR proceeding should be directed to Lorraine White, IEPR program manager, at (916) 654-4075 or by email at lwhite@energy.state.ca.us.

For technical questions regarding the Peak Demand Forecast, please contact Lynn Marshall by phone at (916) 654-4767, or by e-mail at lmarshal@energy.state.ca.us. For technical questions regarding the Supply and Demand Outlook, please contact Denny Brown at (916) 654-4829, or by e-mail at dbrown@energy.state.ca.us. Please direct all news media inquiries to Claudia Chandler, Assistant Executive Director, at (916) 654-4989, or by e-mail at mediaoffice@energy.state.ca.us.

Date: May 8, 2007

commissioner signature
JACKALYNE PFANNENSTIEL
Commissioner and Presiding Member
Integrated Energy Policy Report Committee
commissioner signature
JOHN L. GEESMAN
Commissioner and Associate Member
Integrated Energy Policy Report Committee

Note: California Energy Commission's formal name is State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission.

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