|In the Matter of:||)||Docket No. 06-IEP-1B|
|Preparation of the||)|
|2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report||)||NOTICE OF JOINT COMMITTEE|
Notice of Joint Committee Workshop on
Transportation Energy Demand and Import
The California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) will conduct a Joint Committee workshop to present draft transportation energy demand forecasts and import infrastructure needs assessments for the 2007 IEPR. The workshop is intended to receive comments and input from stakeholders. Two Energy Commission Committees oversee the work on this subject: the IEPR Committee, with Chairman Jackalyne Pfannenstiel as the Presiding Member and Commissioner John L. Geesman as the Associate Member; and the Transportation Committee, with Vice Chair James D. Boyd as the Presiding Member and Commissioner Jeffrey Byron as the Associate Member. All Commissioners may attend and participate in this workshop. The workshop will be held:
THURSDAY, JULY 12, 2007
10 a.m. Note Time Change
PORT OF LOS ANGELES ADMINISTRATION BUILDING
425 South Palos Verdes Street, POLA Board Room
San Pedro, California
Link to map: http://www.portoflosangeles.org/about_map.htm
Note: To participate in the meeting using WedEx onscreen and audio functions, please go to: https://energy.webex.com/energy/j.php?ED=93409212&UID=491404377. If the link does not work, go to: https://energy.webex.com/ and enter 921 290 084
When prompted, enter your information and the password: meeting@9am. Provide your phone number, when prompted, to receive a call back on your phone for the audio of the workshop. Alternately, you can call 1-866-469-3239 (U.S. and Canada toll free). If you have difficulty, please call the WebEx Technical Support at 1-866-229-3239.
For participation in the meeting by phone only, call 1-866-469-3239 (U.S. and Canada toll free). Note: the workshop's WebEx audio and onscreen activity may be recorded.
This workshop will discuss the Energy Commission staff's draft transportation energy analyses and forecasts. The staff workshop held in Sacramento on May 8, 2007, presented the proposed framework for determining state petroleum and ethanol import infrastructure requirements and the essential forecasts, assumptions, and quantification required to make those determinations. On July 12 staff will discuss their findings and analysis regarding future California and neighboring state transportation energy demand, state and regional refinery capacity growth, and in-state crude oil production declines. Staff will present draft transportation energy demand forecasts and transportation fuel and crude oil imports forecasts, including relevant inputs, assumptions, and methods. This workshop is designed to receive public input from interested stakeholders on the proposed analyses and related policy concerns. This information will be used in the development of the 2007 IEPR.
Summary of Proposed Forecasts and Analyses
The Energy Commission's Fuels and Transportation Division develops forecasts and analyses of the transportation fuels industry and related markets. Transportation energy demand and fuel price forecasts support several related energy policy and program activities, including Assembly Bill 1007 alternative vehicle and fuel technology analysis, petroleum use reduction assessment, and petroleum infrastructure requirements assessment. Inputs to the demand forecasts include: transportation fuel price forecasts, economic and demographic data and projections, surveys of vehicle purchase and use by residential households and commercial fleets, vehicle registration data, and projections of vehicle manufacturer offerings. The Energy Commission develops assessments of future petroleum import infrastructure requirements from historic data and projections for transportation fuel demand, refinery distillation and process capacity, and rates of crude oil production decline in California. The focus of the infrastructure analysis will primarily be on marine import infrastructure. However, information on pipeline and truck-borne exports and rail-borne imports is also necessary to determine inter-state energy flows.
Staff will present an overview of the analytic framework and preliminary findings for the transportation fuels demand forecasts and transportation fuel and crude oil import projections. Staff will discuss methods, inputs, results, and related issues, such as demand forecasting models, household and commercial fleet surveys, vehicle attribute projections, and data sources. The Commissioners invite public comment on the staff methods, inputs, forecasts, and findings.
Among the questions the Commissioners will explore and request public input on are:
- What will long-term petroleum transportation fuel prices be, both in absolute terms and relative to alternative fuels? To what extent will this be the result of global crude oil prices and market conditions and to what extent from national and regional fuels market factors?
- At what rates will gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel demand grow in California? At what rates will gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel demand grow in dependent neighboring states such as Nevada and Arizona?
- What estimates are available for current demand and projected growth rates of off-road uses of gasoline and diesel?
- At what rate will California crude oil production decline? Will crude quality and characteristics change significantly and what effects will that have on refinery operations?
- At what rate will in-state refinery distillation or process capacities increase, if at all? What are the limits or constraints on refinery capacity increases? Will any out-of-state refinery capacity growth affect California fuels markets?
- What increases in throughput capacity of crude oil or fuels import infrastructure are expected in the state? What are the limits or constraints on such import capacity increases?
- What effect will increasing use of alternative transportation fuels have on gasoline and diesel demand? What effect will it have on import infrastructure for both traditional petroleum fuels and alternative fuels?
- What are the key drivers that are likely to affect future demand, supply, and price of transportation fuels and how might those drivers change over time? What uncertainties must be taken into account when evaluating these assessment and forecast results?
- What are the key policy concerns revealed by these assessments and forecasts? What are the various options available to address these policy concerns and which options are the most preferred to address California future needs?
The Energy Commission will release staff papers describing current or proposed work and an agenda before the workshop. Workshop documents from the May 8, 2007, staff workshop held in Sacramento, including the transcript, staff and stakeholder papers and presentations, are available online at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007_energypolicy/documents/index.html#050807.
As required by Senate Bill 1389 (Stats. 2002, Ch. 568) the Energy Commission conducts “assessments and forecasts of all aspects of energy industry supply, production, transportation, delivery and distribution, demand, and prices.” The Energy Commission uses these assessments and forecasts to develop energy policies that conserve resources, protect the environment, ensure energy reliability, enhance the state's economy, and protect public health and safety. (Public Resources Code [PRC] § 25301(a).) The Energy Commission adopts the IEPR every odd-numbered year and in even-numbered years adopts an energy policy review to update analysis from the previous IEPR or to raise energy issues that have emerged since the previous proceeding. (PRC § 25302(d).)
Workshop Participation and Comments
The Commissioners request participation of interested parties in this workshop and proceeding and encourage interested parties to present their views either orally at the workshop or through written comments. General comment from the public will be taken immediately following the formal workshop presentations.
Parties should provide comments regarding the questions and analysis, both orally at the workshop and in writing. Written comments must be submitted by 5 p.m. on July 23, 2007. Comments submitted before the workshop will be used to facilitate the discussion. Include the docket number No. 06-IEP-1B and indicate 2007 IEPR – Transportation Energy Forecasts in the subject line or first paragraph of your comments. The Energy Commission encourages comments by electronic mail (e-mail). Please include your name or organization in the name of the file. Those submitting comments by e-mail should provide them in either Microsoft Word format or as a Portable Document File (PDF) to email@example.com.
One paper copy must also be sent to the Energy Commission's Docket Unit. If the original is more than 20 pages, please also provide 12 paper copies to:
California Energy Commission
Dockets Office, MS-4
Re: Docket No. 06-IEP-1B
1516 Ninth Street
Sacramento, CA 95814-5512
Participants may also provide one original and 12 copies at the beginning of the workshop. All written materials relating to this workshop will be filed with the Dockets Unit and become part of the public record in this proceeding.
The Energy Commission's Public Adviser provides the public assistance in participating in Energy Commission activities. If you would like information on how to participate in this workshop, please contact the Public Adviser's Office by phone at (916) 654-4489 or toll-free at (800) 822-6228, by FAX at (916) 654-4493, or by e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. If you have a disability and require assistance to participate in this hearing, please contact Lou Quiroz at (916) 654-5146 at least five days in advance.
The service list for the 2007 IEPR proceeding is handled electronically. Notices and documents for these proceedings are posted to the Energy Commission website http://www.energy.ca.gov/2007_energypolicy/]. When new information is posted, an e-mail will be sent to those on the energy policy e-mail list server. We encourage those who are interested in receiving these notices to sign up for the list server through the website http://www.energy.ca.gov/listservers/index.html.
Questions regarding the 2007 IEPR proceeding should be directed to Lorraine White, IEPR program manager, at (916) 654-4075 or by e-mail at email@example.com. For technical questions regarding the transportation energy forecasts subject matter of this workshop, please contact Jim Page by phone at (916) 654-4886, or by e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org. Please direct all news media inquiries to Claudia Chandler, Assistant Executive Director, at (916) 654-4989, or by e-mail at email@example.com.
Commissioner and Presiding Member
Integrated Energy Policy Report Committee
JOHN L. GEESMAN
Commissioner and Associate Member
Integrated Energy Policy Report Committee
JAMES D. BOYD
Vice Chair and Presiding Member
Commissioner and Associate Member
Date Posted: June 15, 2007
Note: The California Energy Commission's formal name is State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission.