Scenario Analysis of California's Electricity System:
Preliminary Results for the 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report
Publication Number: CEC-200-2007-010-SF
Date Published: June 2007
Download Report. (PDF file, 256 pages, 1.9 MB)
Appendix to Report. (PDF file, 138 pages, 3.1 MB)
ADDENDUM #1. (PDF file, 20 pages, 640 kb)
ADDENDUM #2. (PDF file, 35 pages, 1.2 MB)
Appendix to ADDENDUM #2. (PDF file, 258 pages, 3.5 MB)
ADDENDUM #3. (PDF file, 132 pages, 2.6 MB)
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Abstract
In this 2007 report, California Energy Commission staff uses a scenario analysis approach to examine the implications of resource plans featuring very high penetrations of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy generation (both rooftop solar photovoltaic and supply-side generating technologies) in California and the Western Interconnection.
Among the variables of interest are generation mix to support load, greenhouse gas emissions, system and production costs of generation, fuel consumed in power generation, criteria pollutant emissions, and transmission additions needed in each scenario.
The study does not attempt to identify the optimal penetration of preferred resources (efficiency and renewables), but rather, explores how combinations of increases in penetrations in California and the West affect greenhouse gas emissions, resource requirements, transmission requirements, and cost in those geographic areas.
Staff examined more than 50 cases for the entire Western Interconnection using nine thematic scenarios with sensitivities for high and low fuel prices, plus high and low hydro-electric generation. This range of thematic scenarios allows preferred resource plans to be compared to what might be expected from resource plans with more conventional resources.
The preliminary findings of this study include:
- Increased penetration of preferred resources reduces greenhouse gas emissions significantly even when dispatchable resources to assure reliability are taken into account.
- Reductions in fossil generation that result from increased penetrations of efficiency and renewables are attributable to the displacement of production from some existing generation facilities as well as the deferral or elimination of some anticipated fossil facilities.
- Natural gas generation is found to be the swing fuel in nearly all cases, with coal-based electric generation little affected by levels of energy efficiency and renewables that were investigated.
- Increased penetration of preferred resources outside California increases imports into California.
- Assuming a fixed set of technology characteristics and costs, increased penetrations of energy efficiency and renewables may increase total system costs as the capital cost additions of these resource types outweigh the production costs savings.
KEYWORDS: resource plans, energy efficiency, renewable generation, solar photovoltaic, greenhouse gases, power generation, scenario analysis, generation costs, production costs, transmission, Western Interconnection, sensitivity assessment.