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[California Energy Commission Letterhead]
 

In the Matter of: )      Docket No. 08-IEP-1
  )        
Preparation of the )      NOTICE OF COMMITTEE WORKSHOP
2008 Integrated Energy Policy Report )        
(2008 IEPR) )        
   )        
_________________________________________ )       


Notice of IEPR Committee Workshop on
Energy Efficiency and Forecasting


View Workshop Documents

The California Energy Commission's (Energy Commission) Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Committee will conduct a workshop to discuss methods used to prepare forecasts of annual natural gas, electricity, and peak demand and how they account for building and appliance standards, energy efficiency programs, and other conservation effects. Commissioner Jeffrey D. Byron is the Presiding Member of the committee, and Chairman Jackalyne Pfannenstiel is the Associate Member of the Committee. Other Commissioners may attend and participate in the workshop. The workshop will be held:

TUESDAY, MARCH 11, 2008
1 p.m.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
1516 Ninth Street
First Floor, Hearing Room A
Sacramento, California
(Wheelchair Accessible)

Note: Audio from this hearing will be broadcast over the Internet.
For details on listening in, please go to: www.energy.ca.gov/webcast/

Parties unable to attend this Committee workshop can comment by conference call.

The conference call information is: USA Toll Free Number: 800-857-6618
Passcode: IEPR, Call Leader: Lynn Marshall.

Purpose

Staff will discuss the methods and assumptions used to prepare energy consumption and demand forecasts and how these forecasts incorporate the effects of building and appliance standards, energy efficiency programs, price and market effects, and other forecast assumptions. Staff will present detailed forecast results to show the effects of these assumptions in the Energy Commission's current forecasts. Parties are asked to identify specifically how the forecasts are used and interact with efficiency programs and policies in other venues, what other information or analysis is needed to facilitate these uses, and explain how that information or analysis will be useful in these venues. Utilities are asked to explain how energy efficiency is accounted for in their forecasts, and how they prepare forecasts of unmanaged energy demand.

Background

Since 1985 the Energy Commission has distinguished between two types of conservation programs that are reasonably expected to occur: committed and uncommitted. "Committed" programs are defined as programs or standards that have been implemented or for which funding has been approved. "Uncommitted" impacts are projected savings from programs reasonably expected but not yet approved. Energy Commission demand forecasts seek to account for all committed conservation that is "reasonably expected to occur." Uncommitted savings are considered as a supply resource that is evaluated against traditional resources.

The forecast report prepared for the 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report (California Energy Demand 2008 - 2018: Staff Revised Forecast, publication # CEC-200-2007-015-SF2) includes tables (on pages 233-245) quantifying the committed impacts of building and appliance standards and programs accounted for in the residential and commercial models. For the investor-owned utilities, program plans through 2008 are considered committed. A portion of the committed efficiency actions are included in the forecast models as market and price effects, and the remainder are included by staff as adjustments in the model.

Because program proposals for the uncommitted period do not yet exist, and the post-2009 program mix is likely to differ substantially from the current mix, staff has not yet prepared an uncommitted forecast. Staff plans to prepare an uncommitted efficiency forecast as program plans and goals are defined later this year. As with the committed programs, staff anticipates that a portion of the uncommitted efficiency actions are included in the forecast models as market and price effects, and the remainder would be considered a supply resource.

In the 2007 IEPR, several parties requested that the Energy Commission provide additional information on the ways in which energy efficiency is accounted for in the Energy Commission forecast models. By February 22, 2008, staff will post end-use level forecast results for the residential and commercial sectors, and energy intensity trend information for the industrial, agriculture, and other sectors. At the workshop, we would like to hear parties' responses to the questions below. It would also be extremely valuable to have responses to these questions in advance of the workshop.

Questions for Workshop:

  • How are the demand forecasts used in other venues? Are there issues associated with the forecasts and those uses? How can forecast use in these other venues be coordinated to reflect collaborative understanding of how to use the forecasts?

  • What additional information or analysis would parties like to see? What data are needed to conduct this analysis? Can these questions be effectively answered with the demand forecast or are new tools needed?

  • How would that additional information or analysis be used? What entity would use the results, and when is it needed?

  • How do utilities model energy efficiency impacts in the utilities' own forecast methods? In particular, please discuss the methods and assumptions used to develop a forecast of unmanaged demand (that is, demand before the effects of energy efficiency programs).

Workshop Participation and Comments

The IEPR Committee requests participation of utilities and other interested parties in this workshop and proceeding and encourages interested parties to present their views either orally at the workshop or through written comments. The Committee will take comments from the public immediately following the workshop presentations.

Parties should provide comments both orally at the workshop and in writing. Final written comments are requested no later than 5 p.m. on March 21, 2008. Comments submitted at least 2 business days before the workshop will be used to facilitate the discussion. Please include the docket reference Docket No. 08-IEP-1 in the subject line or first paragraph of your comments, and include your name or organization in the name of the file. Those submitting comments by electronic mail should provide them in either Microsoft Word format or as a Portable Document File (PDF) to [docket@energy.state.ca.us].

One paper copy must also be sent to the Energy Commission's Docket Unit. If the original is more than 20 pages, please also provide 12 paper copies to:

California Energy Commission
Dockets Office, MS-4
Re: Docket No. 08-IEP-1
1516 Ninth Street
Sacramento, CA 95814-5512

Participants may also provide the original and 12 copies at the beginning of the workshop. All written materials relating to this workshop will be filed with the Dockets Unit and become part of the public record in this proceeding.

Additional Information

The Energy Commission's Public Adviser provides the public assistance in participating in Energy Commission activities. If you would like information on how to participate in this workshop, please contact the Public Adviser's Office by phone at (916) 654-4489 or toll-free at (800) 822-6228, by FAX at (916) 654-4493, or by e-mail at [pao@energy.state.ca.us]. If you have a disability and require assistance to participate in this hearing, please contact Lou Quiroz at (916) 654-5146 at least five days in advance.

For technical questions regarding the subject matter of the workshop, please contact Lynn Marshall by phone at (916) 654-4767, or by e-mail at lmarshal@energy.state.ca.us]. Please direct all news media inquiries to Susanne Garfield Jones at (916) 654-4989, or by e-mail at [mediaoffice@energy.state.ca.us].

commissioner signature
JEFFREY D. BYRON
Commissioner and Presiding Member
Integrated Energy Policy Report
Committee
commissioner signature
JACKALYNE PFANNENSTIEL
Chairman and Associate Member
Integrated Energy Policy Report
Committee

Date posted: February 19, 2008

Note: California Energy Commission's formal name is State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission.

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