Incremental Impact of Energy Efficiency Policy Initiatives Relative to the
2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report Adopted Demand Forecast
Download Committee Report, Posted 5/13/2010.
(PDF file, 88 pages, 1.7 megabytes)
Publication Number: CEC-200-2010-001-CTF
Publication Date: May 2010
ATTACHMENT A: Technical Report, Consultant Report by Itron, Inc., publication # CEC-200-2010-001-ATA. (PDF file, 117 pages, 2.7 megabytes)
Section 5 & 6 Tables. (Microsoft Excel file, 1.3 megabytes)
This report provides estimates of the impact on energy and peak demand of a set of electricity energy efficiency policy initiatives that the California Public Utilities Commission adopted in 2008. These estimates are designed to be incremental to savings already included in the adopted 2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report demand forecast. Estimates are provided for three scenarios - low, medium, and high - that vary by policy requirements and therefore impact. An additional estimate represents directives issued by the California Public Utilities Commission for investor-owned utilities to replace 50 percent of program savings that decay as efficiency measures wear out, starting in 2006. Staff did not incorporate this decay in the previously adopted demand forecast.
For the three major investor-owned utilities combined, estimated incremental energy savings in 2020 total between 10,700 gigawatt hours and 14,400 gigawatt hours; 2020 peak savings total between 4,000 megawatts and 5,400 megawatts. These savings would reduce projected energy growth from 2008-2020 by between 57 and 77 percent and projected peak demand growth by between 56 and 91 percent. These scenario results, the additional estimates of 1,860 gigawatt hours and 382 megawatts in replaced savings decay, and the adopted 2009 demand forecast will be used in the California Public Utility Commission's forthcoming 2010 procurement rulemaking as key inputs into assessments of needed generation and other energy supply resources and will ultimately affect the procurement authority granted to investor-owned utilities.
Keywords: Efficiency, committed savings, uncommitted savings, incremental uncommitted savings, Total Market Gross, Big Bold initiatives, managed forecast
Attachment A: Technical Report - Summary
The primary objective of this study was to produce quantitative estimates of the electric energy and coincident peak demand savings from the "uncommitted" programmatic activities and delivery mechanisms included in Itron's 2008 CPUC Goals Study that are incremental to those already embedded in the Energy Commission's 2009 IEPR demand forecast. In order to accomplish this, the Energy Commission and the CPUC requested that Itron use the same modeling framework and scenarios from the 2008 CPUC Goals Study that were used to inform the interim savings goals for 2012 through 2020 adopted by the CPUC in D.08-07-047.