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                 California's Electrifying Future
                  the Need for Electric Vehicles

                               by
                      Charles R. Imbrecht
             Chairman, California Energy Commission
                     November-December 1995

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Note:
This essay was written for Electric & Hybrid Vehicle Technology 95 
Magazine for distribution at Second ITS World Conference, Yokohama, 
Japan, November 1995; and ENV, Detroit, Michigan, USA, January 1996.


Written for:

Electric & Hybrid Vehicle Technology
UK & International Press
A Division of AutoIntermediates, Ltd.
120 South Dorking Street
Dorking, Surrey RH4 2EU
ENGLAND


Submitted: July 12, 1995



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California has been home to many innovations over the years. 
Technical wizards in the Silicon Valley, and the computers and
software they've developed, have revolutionized the way we do
business and live our lives.  Our movie companies in Hollywood
have captivated the world with drama and pathos, comedy and music. 
Our aerospace companies have built planes that have flown higher
and gone faster, and have built components of spacecraft that have
gone to the moon and beyond. California's fertile valley soils
have been a test bed for crop innovation yielding plants, fruits
and vegetables to feed the nation and the world. Our schools have
created scores of Nobel-class scientists and scholars.  California
has even been home to two American Presidents.

Once again, California is poised on the edge of innovation.  Our
state plans to introduce significant numbers of electric vehicles
(EVs) into the consumer marketplace in 1998. In that year, two
percent of vehicles offered for sale by seven major auto companies
will be required to be Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV).  That means
that of the 1.3 million vehicles sold in California in 1998, more
than 22,000 will be electric vehicles. This increases to 10
percent of all vehicles in 2003.

The California Energy Commission has studied alternative fuel
vehicles since 1978. Because of its role as the state's primary
energy policy and planning agency, the Energy Commission was
designated as the lead agency to study alternative fuel vehicles
and to help develop the infrastructure needed to fuel those
vehicles. 

In this article, we'll explain the need for electric vehicles, how
they will help our environment, a few projects we've undertaken to
develop EVs, and a look at how EVs will be integrated into
California's transportation sector.


Background

Californians drive in and ride on more than 23.2 million
registered cars, trucks and motorcycles. These vehicles consume
more than 13.3 billion gallons of gasoline each year. The numbers
will dramatically increase as our population grows from 32 million
today to 38 million in the next 15 years.

Vehicles emit the vast majority of the harmful pollutants that
cause the smog that affects the health of all of us. All of the
easy and cheap solutions to clean up our air quality problems have
been employed, especially from stationary source emissions. Most
of California's factories, businesses and power plants have the
best available control technology for pollution.

Cleaning up vehicle emissions is both fair and necessary as the
transportation sector is called upon to reduce pollution. Electric
vehicles are only part of the overall strategy to clean up mobile
source emissions. Other strategies include low emission and ultra-
low emission vehicles using a variety of fuels such as methanol,
ethanol, natural gas and propane; scrapping older more polluting
vehicles; encouraging mass transit; and using a cleaner gasoline
called reformulated gasoline.

This much cleaner form of gasoline goes on sale next year. We
expect that gasoline will remain the dominant transportation fuel
for many years. But California needs to reduce its dependence on
one fuel source to make it less vulnerable to supply disruptions. 
We have done that in our electricity production. 

Twenty years ago about two-thirds of all California's electricity
came from burning oil.  Today, less than one-percent of
electricity comes from burning oil.  In the process, we have
created an industry for renewable energy and advanced power
generation that has made California, as some call it, the "energy
laboratory of the world."

This "portfolio approach" of many sources for electricity
production is being extended to our transportation sector, which
consumes about one-half of all energy used in California.  To
neglect this area would doom us to a future of dependency on one
energy source when other fuels are available.  Therefore,
California is looking toward electricity, produced from domestic
fuels, for its transportation sector.


Energy

Although the transportation sector's use of energy is an important
aspect of the overall economic well-being of California, the
state's ZEV requirement was established to meet health-based air
quality standards.  Using EVs, however, will have additional
benefits beyond just air quality.

Energy Commission analyses show that EVs and their associated fuel
supply systems will likely be more energy efficient than gasoline
vehicles and their fuel supply systems.  These fuel supply systems
are different, of course, with EVs supplied by electric power
plants and transmission systems, while gasoline vehicles are
supplied by oil drilling and production, crude oil transportation,
petroleum refining, and gasoline distribution.

In several studies, which rely upon the state's electricity
planning process to predict the likely sources of the state's
electricity, California Energy Commission staff has generally
found that today's EV would consume less energy on a total fuel
cycle basis than does an equivalent gasoline car.  


System Efficiency

Using electric vehicles will make the electricity system more
efficient.  During off-peak hours when less electricity is
consumed, such as over-night, many power plants have to be either
shut down or scaled back.  The Energy Commission estimates that
most electric vehicles will recharge during these off-peak hours
when electricity is available and less expensive to produce than
during peak periods. 

California currently has enough excess capacity (the power not
used during off-peak hours) to handle the demands of charging
millions of electric vehicles.  Even by 2010, EVs will only
consume 3.2 percent of the total electricity produced.


Emissions

Studies by Energy Commission staff of electric vehicles' impact on
the South Coast Air Basin in Los Angeles find that EVs
significantly reduce criteria pollutants, those pollutants for
which there are ambient concentration standards.  Some pollutants
are reduced by more than 90 percent and as much as 98 percent,
compared to gasoline-powered vehicles, even when power plant
emissions are included.  We are confident that carbon monoxide and
reactive organic gases (a precursor of ozone) will be greatly
reduced.  We believe oxides of nitrogen (also a precursor to
ozone) will be substantially reduced.  

Outside of California, emissions may increase as a result of EVs
because some of the energy imported to California will come from
Southwest United States coal-fired power plants.  These results
are based on our assessment of electricity produced by Western and
California facilities.  Western power plants, however, are cleaner
than the national average and California power plants are
generally much cleaner than the average Western facility.  In
addition, local air pollution regulatory agencies have significant
authority over the amount of pollutants emitted from these Western
power plants.  The Energy Commission has high confidence that
these plants will operate within their emission limits even with
any added demand from future electric vehicles.


EV Research, Development and Demonstration

Electric vehicle technology is not static. Advances are being made
by numerous California-based companies such as Hughes Power
Control Systems, Amerigon, Allied Signal, Group IX Systems, Kaiser
Aluminum, and U. S. Flywheel Systems.  To go beyond the initial
two percent sales volume, technological advances in batteries,
vehicle chassis and auxiliary power options will most likely be
required.  

California's entrepreneurial spirit recognizes a growing
marketplace for advanced transportation.  In 1992, state and local
government joined forces with private businesses to form CALSTART,
a consortium devoted to electric and low-pollution vehicles and an
advanced transportation industry. More than 135 companies and
local government agencies are CALSTART members.

The advanced transportation industry is also doing much to help
revitalize California's stagnant economy.  CALSTART officials say
that a third of its members' investments in advanced
transportation will be $452 million in 1995, with more than 1,100
new jobs.  This will increase to nearly $1.6 billion by 1999 and
13,000 jobs.  These are investments in California's future.  Our
know-how and high-tech expertise in aerospace and computers make
California the perfect place to develop an advanced transportation
industry.  Once developed here, California plans to offer our
products and services to the world.


Government Support for EVs

Government traditionally supports fledgling industry with taxes
breaks or other assistance until it can make it on its own.  Since
1991, the State of California has invested only $6.3 million into
direct electric vehicle research and demonstration programs. 
These are not tax dollars but are fines paid by oil companies,
which over-charged consumers during the oil crises of the 1970s. 
That small amount of money was matched by more than $47 million
from the private sector and others.  The federal government is
investing much more into R&D on batteries and advanced vehicles.

Some of these projects could have dramatic payoffs. We are
demonstrating many different technologies, including a project to
replace the noisy and polluting diesel buses now operating in
Yosemite National Park, with silent and pollution-free electric-
powered buses.  American Flywheel Systems has received funding for
work on an advanced flywheel storage system for EVs.  We have also
funded development of ultra-capacitors that could assist EVs when
large amounts of extra power are quickly  needed (such as climbing
hills or passing other cars).

Only a small amount of state funds is being used for EV incentives
(and other alternatively fueled vehicles) to offset the premium
price tag on current generation EVs.  Those incentives end in 1998
when prices are expected to drop, when there is more competition
and as EVs become a mass-consumer product.

The California Energy Commission also has initiated a large scale,
multi agency consumer demonstration of electric vehicles. Called
EV California, the goal is to place 2,000 EVs in fleets and with
others by 1997. The Energy Commission, the California Air
Resources Board, local air quality management districts, utility
companies and others have combined staff and financial resources,
technical expertise and support for EV California.


How EVs Fit Into California's Transportation Picture

The California of the future will be different from today.  Better
land-use planning that takes advantage of high-tech mass transit
and computer-aided highways and vehicles may be part of our
future.  Commuters may take a small neighborhood electric vehicle
to their local mass transit station to then board an electric-
powered light- or heavy-rail system to travel to their offices. 
Such a system is already being planned for San Francisco.

The San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District, along
with Pacific Gas and Electric Company, the California Department
of Transportation, the Energy Commission and local government, are
equipping various BART stations with EV recharging facilities. In
a demonstration project, PG&E employees drive electric shuttle
vans and smaller (one or two seater) neighborhood EVs (NEVs) to
BART train stations.  The vehicles will be left there charging for
the day.  When commuters return at night, the EVs will be ready
for them to drive home.

Eventually, the idea could expand where, by using a special credit
card, anyone could "rent" a small electric vehicle at a station. 
The credit card would charge the person's account for "rental" of
the NEV.  They could then return the NEV to that same location or
drop it off at another BART station.  This concept has worked with
bicycles in some cities around the world.  

Electric vehicles will fit into the general transportation future
as would any other new car introduced by the automakers.  While
their power source is different from an internal combustion
engine, EVs are really no different from conventional internal
combustion engine vehicles.  EVs can handle freeway speeds and all
should be safe in crashes. 

EV drivers who find themselves in one of California's notorious
traffic jams create no pollution when compared to their gasoline
counterparts.  EVs only use power when the accelerator is pushed 
-- they do not idle like conventional internal combustion engines 
-- and will not pollute the air as they sit, stuck in traffic.


Developing the Infrastructure

Much still needs to be done to make California and its cities "EV-
ready."  Working groups -- made up of utility companies, research
institutions, state and local government, and other interested
parties -- have formed to discuss a variety of topics.  These
include: health and safety issues such as amendments to building
codes, crash testing of vehicles and response by emergency
personnel to vehicle accidents involving EVs; the types of
charging connections for vehicles -- conductive or inductive
charging; training for mechanics and repair people; and other
crucial topics. 

With the commitment made by these groups, we believe California
will be ready for electric vehicles when the mandates become
effective in 1998.  The number of public charging facilities will
grow from about 150 outlets today to tens-of-thousands of outlets
at stores, parking lots and even at the curb.  Electric vehicles
currently do not pay for the electricity they use at these public
facilities, though we expect coin- or credit card-operated payment
systems to evolve in the future.  

We are also working to change construction requirements for
garages in new homes, parking structures and businesses to make
them ready for EV charging.  



California's love affair with vehicles, spawned out of the
expansion of our cities and population growth of the last 40
years, will probably not end.  The objects of our affection may,
however, be different from today.  Rather than high-powered muscle
machines, our vehicles may become more utilitarian, with some only
for commuting.  We may still lovingly rub coat upon waxy coat of
polish to our beloved cars, but cars of the future will have
different power plants than today.  And rather than the "vrooom"
of an internal combustion engine, many will probably "purrr" with
the soft hum of electric power.



                               # # #



Charles R. Imbrecht has been Chairman of the California Energy
Commission for more than 10 years and is internationally
recognized as an expert on alternative energy and energy policy. 
A strong advocate of alternative fuel vehicles, Mr. Imbrecht
drives a methanol-powered car as his regular vehicle. He has test
driven almost all makes. prototypes and demonstration electric
vehicles -- from the Solectria Force to solar-powered cars to the
GM Impact (in all its phases).  His home's garage is already wired
for EVs.


Fore more information about the California Energy Commission
and its programs contact:

California Energy Commission
Media & Public Communications Office
1516 Ninth Street, MS-29
Sacramento, CA 95814
Phone: 916-654-4989
FAX: 916-654-4420




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