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Public Interest Energy Research Program: Final Project Report

cover of report Wind Power Generation Trends at Multiple California Sites

Publication Number: CEC-500-2005-185
Publication Date: December 2005
PIER Program Area: Renewable Energy Technologies

The executive summary, abstract and table of contents for this report are available below. This publication is available as an Adobe Acrobat Portable Document Format Files. In order to download, read and print PDF files, you will need a copy of the free Acrobat Reader software installed in and configured for your computer. The software can be downloaded from Adobe Systems Incorporated's website.

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Executive Summary

None available.


Overview/Abstract

The importance of wind energy has long been recognized by the California Energy Commission (ENERGY COMMISSION), which supports research and development in renewable energy through its Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Wind energy provides significant benefits in terms of improved air quality, increased energy supply diversity, in-state energy revenues, and local employment. Still, wind energy development in California faces impediments to its continued growth.

In an effort to foster additional development of wind energy in the state, the ENERGY COMMISSION created the California Wind Energy Collaborative (CWEC), which is managed by the University of California at Davis. The mission of the California Wind Energy Collaborative is to support the development of safe, reliable, environmentally sound, and affordable wind electric generation capacity within the state of California. CWEC works in close cooperation with industry, state and federal agencies, and other institutions to maximize the benefits of wind energy resources for California citizens.

The objective of this project was to document the characteristics of wind power generation at multiple California sites. Representative wind power generation data were obtained and normalized to reflect the average output for three major wind resource regions. The output from each region was compared against the statewide system electrical demand and trends were observed.



Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 OVERVIEW 1

1.2 ANNUAL POWER DEMAND 1

1.3 DIURNAL POWER DEMAND 3

1.4 WIND RESOURCES 6

2 WIND GENERATION TRENDS 11

2.1 MULTI-YEAR TRENDS 11

2.2 MONTHLY GENERATION TRENDS 14

2.3 DIURNAL GENERATION TRENDS 16

2.4 NORMALIZED TIME SERIES 19

3 TIME DEPENDENT VALUATION 21

3.1 DEMAND BASED VALUATION 21

3.2 TIER BASED VALUATION 24

4 MATCH GENERATION IMPACT ANALYSIS 27

4.1 DISCUSSION OF THE METHODOLOGY 27

4.2 CASE 1: 1500 MW WIND CAPACITY 28

4.3 CASE 2: 8000 MW WIND CAPACITY 30

5 REFERENCES 33


LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 California Power Demand for 2001 Through 2003 2

Figure 1.2 Ranked Demand Factor for 2001 Through 2003 3

Figure 1.3 Ranked Demand Factor for 500 Peak Hours 3

Figure 1.4 Diurnal Power Demand During the First Quarter of 2002 4

Figure 1.5 Diurnal Power Demand During the Second Quarter of 2002 5

Figure 1.6 Diurnal Power Demand During the Third Quarter of 2002 5

Figure 1.7 Diurnal Power Demand During the Fourth Quarter of 2002 6

Figure 1.8 Estimated Share of Future Wind Energy Growth by Resource Area 9

Figure 1.9 Wind Resource Map of Northern California 10

Figure 1.10 Wind Resource Map of Southern California 10

Figure 2.1 2002 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 15

Figure 2.2 2003 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 16

Figure 2.3 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the First Quarter of 2002 17

Figure 2.4 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the Second Quarter of 2002 18

Figure 2.5 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the Third Quarter of 2002 18

Figure 2.6 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the Fourth Quarter of 2002 18

Figure 2.7 Capacity Factor Comparison During a Peak Demand Period 19

Figure 2.8 Wind Capacity Factor Comparison During July 2002 19

Figure 2.9 Wind Capacity Factor Comparison During August 2002 20

Figure 3.1 Demand Based Value Factor as a Function of Time of Year 21

Figure 3.2 Demand Based Value Factor During a Peak Demand Period 22

Figure 3.3 Demand Based Revenue Factor During a Peak Demand Period 22

Figure 3.4 Demand Based Revenue Factor During July 2002 23

Figure 3.5 Demand Based Revenue Factor During August 2002 23

Figure 3.6 Tier Based Value Factor as a Function of Time of Year 24

Figure 3.7 Tier Based Value Factor During a Peak Demand Period 25

Figure 3.8 Tier Based Revenue Factor During a Peak Demand Period 25

Figure 3.9 Tier Based Revenue Factor During July 2002 25

Figure 3.10 Tier Based Revenue Factor During August 2002 26

Figure 4.1 Ranked System and Match Generation for Case 1 28

Figure 4.2 Match Generation Impact From Wind Generation for Case 1 29

Figure 4.3 Match Generation Impact in Top 200 Hours for Case 1 29

Figure 4.4 Match Generation Impact in Top 1000 Hours for Case 1 30

Figure 4.5 Ranked System and Match Generation for Case 2 31

Figure 4.6 Match Generation Impact From Wind Generation for Case 2 31

Figure 4.7 Match Generation Impact in Top 200 Hours for Case 2 31

Figure 4.8 Match Generation Impact in Top 1000 Hours for Case 2 32


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 California Peak Demand Hours for 2001 Through 2003 2

Table 1.2 California Land Area in Square Miles for Various Wind Speeds and Heights 6

Table 1.3 Wind Power Capacity Growth for the Baseline Scenario 8

Table 2.1 Altamont Wind Capacity Factor by Year 11

Table 2.2 San Gorgonio Wind Capacity Factor by Year 11

Table 2.3 Tehachapi Wind Capacity Factor by Year 12

Table 2.4 Solano Wind Capacity Factor by Year 12

Table 2.5 First Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 12

Table 2.6 Second Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 13

Table 2.7 Third Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 13

Table 2.8 Fourth Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 13

Table 2.9 Mean Annual Wind Capacity Factor by Year 14

Table 2.10 2002 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 14

Table 2.11 2003 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 16

Table 3.1 Demand Based Revenue Factor Comparison Summary 23

Table 3.2 Tier Based Revenue Factor Comparison Summary 26


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