Wind Power Generation Trends at Multiple California Sites
Publication Number: CEC-500-2005-185
Publication Date: December 2005
PIER Program Area: Renewable Energy Technologies
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Executive Summary
None available.
Overview/Abstract
The importance of wind energy has long been recognized by the California Energy Commission (ENERGY COMMISSION), which supports research and development in renewable energy through its Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Wind energy provides significant benefits in terms of improved air quality, increased energy supply diversity, in-state energy revenues, and local employment. Still, wind energy development in California faces impediments to its continued growth.
In an effort to foster additional development of wind energy in the state, the ENERGY COMMISSION created the California Wind Energy Collaborative (CWEC), which is managed by the University of California at Davis. The mission of the California Wind Energy Collaborative is to support the development of safe, reliable, environmentally sound, and affordable wind electric generation capacity within the state of California. CWEC works in close cooperation with industry, state and federal agencies, and other institutions to maximize the benefits of wind energy resources for California citizens.
The objective of this project was to document the characteristics of wind power generation at multiple California sites. Representative wind power generation data were obtained and normalized to reflect the average output for three major wind resource regions. The output from each region was compared against the statewide system electrical demand and trends were observed.
Table of Contents
1 INTRODUCTION 11.2 ANNUAL POWER DEMAND 1
1.3 DIURNAL POWER DEMAND 3
1.4 WIND RESOURCES 6
2.2 MONTHLY GENERATION TRENDS 14
2.3 DIURNAL GENERATION TRENDS 16
2.4 NORMALIZED TIME SERIES 19
3.2 TIER BASED VALUATION 24
4.2 CASE 1: 1500 MW WIND CAPACITY 28
4.3 CASE 2: 8000 MW WIND CAPACITY 30
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.2 Ranked Demand Factor for 2001 Through 2003 3
Figure 1.3 Ranked Demand Factor for 500 Peak Hours 3
Figure 1.4 Diurnal Power Demand During the First Quarter of 2002 4
Figure 1.5 Diurnal Power Demand During the Second Quarter of 2002 5
Figure 1.6 Diurnal Power Demand During the Third Quarter of 2002 5
Figure 1.7 Diurnal Power Demand During the Fourth Quarter of 2002 6
Figure 1.8 Estimated Share of Future Wind Energy Growth by Resource Area 9
Figure 1.9 Wind Resource Map of Northern California 10
Figure 1.10 Wind Resource Map of Southern California 10
Figure 2.1 2002 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 15
Figure 2.2 2003 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 16
Figure 2.3 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the First Quarter of 2002 17
Figure 2.4 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the Second Quarter of 2002 18
Figure 2.5 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the Third Quarter of 2002 18
Figure 2.6 Diurnal Wind Generation Trends During the Fourth Quarter of 2002 18
Figure 2.7 Capacity Factor Comparison During a Peak Demand Period 19
Figure 2.8 Wind Capacity Factor Comparison During July 2002 19
Figure 2.9 Wind Capacity Factor Comparison During August 2002 20
Figure 3.1 Demand Based Value Factor as a Function of Time of Year 21
Figure 3.2 Demand Based Value Factor During a Peak Demand Period 22
Figure 3.3 Demand Based Revenue Factor During a Peak Demand Period 22
Figure 3.4 Demand Based Revenue Factor During July 2002 23
Figure 3.5 Demand Based Revenue Factor During August 2002 23
Figure 3.6 Tier Based Value Factor as a Function of Time of Year 24
Figure 3.7 Tier Based Value Factor During a Peak Demand Period 25
Figure 3.8 Tier Based Revenue Factor During a Peak Demand Period 25
Figure 3.9 Tier Based Revenue Factor During July 2002 25
Figure 3.10 Tier Based Revenue Factor During August 2002 26
Figure 4.1 Ranked System and Match Generation for Case 1 28
Figure 4.2 Match Generation Impact From Wind Generation for Case 1 29
Figure 4.3 Match Generation Impact in Top 200 Hours for Case 1 29
Figure 4.4 Match Generation Impact in Top 1000 Hours for Case 1 30
Figure 4.5 Ranked System and Match Generation for Case 2 31
Figure 4.6 Match Generation Impact From Wind Generation for Case 2 31
Figure 4.7 Match Generation Impact in Top 200 Hours for Case 2 31
Figure 4.8 Match Generation Impact in Top 1000 Hours for Case 2 32
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.2 California Land Area in Square Miles for Various Wind Speeds and Heights 6
Table 1.3 Wind Power Capacity Growth for the Baseline Scenario 8
Table 2.1 Altamont Wind Capacity Factor by Year 11
Table 2.2 San Gorgonio Wind Capacity Factor by Year 11
Table 2.3 Tehachapi Wind Capacity Factor by Year 12
Table 2.4 Solano Wind Capacity Factor by Year 12
Table 2.5 First Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 12
Table 2.6 Second Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 13
Table 2.7 Third Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 13
Table 2.8 Fourth Quarter Wind Capacity Factor by Year 13
Table 2.9 Mean Annual Wind Capacity Factor by Year 14
Table 2.10 2002 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 14
Table 2.11 2003 Monthly Capacity Factor by Resource Area 16
Table 3.1 Demand Based Revenue Factor Comparison Summary 23
Table 3.2 Tier Based Revenue Factor Comparison Summary 26