The Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) is a forum for technical discussion and consensus-building on inputs and results for the electricity and natural gas demand forecasts adopted by the California Energy Commission. The Energy Commission’s Energy Assessments Division sponsors and manages the DAWG. Staff convenes DAWG, pulling in additional forecasting experts at the utilities as well as other stakeholders, to discuss technical details behind the forecast. The purpose is to build consensus on those details before the forecast is complete so that the adoption process can proceed smoothly.
Topic Areas include:
- Inputs to and development of demand forecasts
- Modeling assumptions and techniques used to produce the forecasts
- Approaches for ensuring transparency
- Uses for demand forecast results
Of particular importance to the DAWG are methods and approaches for including demand modifiers in demand forecasts, including demand response, distributed generation, transportation electrification and additional achievable energy efficiency. These demand modifiers ultimately affect the demand used to make energy procurement and transmission planning decisions.
The primary goal of the DAWG is to foster collaboration between Energy Commission staff and stakeholders and thereby smoothing the process of developing the energy demand forecast that is adopted in the Energy Commission’s California Energy Demand Forecast and Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR). That forecast is used in the California Public Utilities Commission’s (CPUC) Long Term Procurement and Energy Efficiency Proceeding, its Energy Efficiency proceedings and in the California Independent System Operator’s (California ISO) Transmission Planning Proceeding.
Information developed by the DAWG and its members is used in regulatory proceedings including the Energy Commission’s California Energy Demand Forecast and Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR), and the CPUC’s Long Term Procurement and Energy Efficiency proceedings as well as the California ISO’s transmission planning analyses
DAWG allows detailed technical discussion of complex forecasting issues in a working group forum of experts who can compare notes, trade ideas and iron out differences in a more informal setting than allowed at typical Energy Commission workshops. DAWG also covers topics such as forecast disaggregation, weather normalization, and econometric versus end-use forecasting approaches. These tend to be areas less easily addressed by traditional forecasting methodology. DAWG offers a forum to compare different approaches, including their strengths, weaknesses and results.
Meetings and Subgroups
DAWG meetings are called by Energy Commission staff. Some DAWG meetings are of the full working group while others are convened for individual subgroups, colloquially known as “Pups” of the DAWG. They are: the Demand Forecasting Subgroup, related to demand forecasting in general, the Energy Savings Subgroup with a focus on energy efficiency and conservation, the Distributed Generation Subgroup focusing on customer-side distributed generation, and the Demand Response Subgroup, focusing on demand- or load-modifying (as opposed to supply-side) demand response. Other subgroups can be added, if needed.