Aniss Bahreinian, Eva Borges, Jesse Gage, Bob McBride, Gordon Schremp, Ysbrand van der Werf, Gary Yowell
Abstract
This report, prepared by California Energy Commission staff in support of the 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report, provides long-term forecasts of California’s transportation energy demand and fuel prices. These forecasts support analysis of petroleum reduction and efficiency measures, introduction and commercialization of zero-emission vehicles, alternative fuels, alternative fuel infrastructure requirements, and energy diversity and security. The magnitude of future contributions from efficiency improvements and various alternative fuels and technologies is uncertain. Energy Commission staff found that efficiency and emerging fuels and technologies can displace potentially significant amounts of petroleum, which may reduce the need for petroleum-specific infrastructure enhancements. Many of these alternative fuels, however, may require additional infrastructure, including production facilities, pipelines, and storage tanks. Moreover, transportation-related industries must develop the means to distribute these emerging fuels (including electricity, natural gas, and hydrogen) through both public and home refueling and recharging systems and align the installation of these sites and technologies with the rollout of appropriate numbers of vehicles.
