Assessing Local Reliability in Southern California Using a Local Capacity Annual Assessment Tool: 2016 IEPR Update
Publication Number
CEC-200-2016-011
Updated
August 26, 2016
Publication Year
2016
Publication Division
Energy Assessments (200)
Author(s)
Michael R. Jaske Ph.D., Lana Wong
Abstract
This report describes analyses using a computer modeling tool developed by California Energy Commission staff that projects annual surpluses or deficits for energy resources versus local capacity requirements for several areas of Southern California. This tool uses as the baseline inputs the common body of assumptions developed for the California Public Utility Commission’s 2014 Long-Term Procurement Plan rulemaking and the California Independent System Operator’s 2015-16 Transmission Plan, as well as the California Independent System Operator’s power flow modeling study results estimating 2016, 2021, and 2025 local capacity requirements. This tool provides part of the analytic basis for determining that a future shortfall is likely and the patterns of such a shortfall, which are intended to be used by decision makers in deciding whether mitigation measures ought to be considered to resolve a contingency affecting local electric service reliability. Energy Commission staff reports on results for baseline assumptions, a sensitivity study examining the impact of uncertainty for key variables on an individual basis, and a scenario study examining the effects of multiple changes to the baseline assumptions. The analytic results provide a basis for recommendations for future efforts at the California Public Utilities Commission and the California Independent System Operator.