California Energy Demand Updated Forecast, 2017-2027

The California Energy Demand Updated Forecast 2016-2026 describes the California Energy Commission’s update of the California Energy Demand 2015-2025 Final Forecast developed for the 2015 Integrated Energy Policy Report. Updated projections for electricity consumption, sales, and peak demand are provided for each of eight electricity planning areas and for the state as a whole. The forecast includes three updated scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid energy demand case. The high energy demand case incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth, relatively low electricity and natural gas rates, and relatively low efficiency program and self-generation impacts. The low energy demand case includes lower economic/demographic growth, higher assumed rates, and higher efficiency program and self-generation impacts. The mid case uses input assumptions at levels between the high and low cases. Forecasts are provided at both the planning area and climate zone level (in the accompanying demand forecast forms). In addition to these baseline forecasts, updated estimates of additional achievable energy efficiency are provided for the investor-owned utility service territories.