Transportation Energy Demand Forecast, 2018-2030 - Staff Report

This report, prepared by California Energy Commission staff to support the 2017 Integrated
Energy Policy Report, provides long-term projections and forecasts of California’s transportation
energy demand. Toward this goal, the report lays out models and methods for forecasting the
growth and changes in energy demand across multiple transportation sectors. The general
methodology of the forecast is to examine existing conditions and projected market and
technology trends and account for substitution among different fuel types and technologies to
forecast future vehicle stock and fuel consumption.

The report identifies key inputs and assumptions used in the model, including base year inputs
and projected inputs. Among these inputs, the forecast relies on three – low, mid, and high –
common economic and demographic growth cases that are shared with other, non-transportation
sectors from the broader California energy demand forecast. Projections for vehicle attributes also
influence consumers’ future purchase decisions, which subsequently affect their fuel
consumption.

Results from the forecasting models indicate a general trend toward alternative fuels and vehicle
electrification, particularly among light-duty vehicles. Electricity demand rises in response.
Conventional fuels and vehicles, such as gasoline and diesel, retain the dominant share of vehicle
stock and fuel use throughout the forecast period. However, the forecasted demand for gasoline
declines throughout the forecast period in each of the three forecast cases.