California Energy Demand 2018-2030 Revised Forecast

The California Energy Demand 2018–2030 Revised Forecast describes the California Energy Commission’s revised 12-year forecasts for electricity consumption, retail sales, and peak demand for each of five major electricity planning areas and for the state as a whole. This forecast supports the analysis and recommendations set forth in the 2017 Integrated Energy Policy Report. The forecast includes three full scenarios: a high energy demand case, a low energy demand case, and a mid-energy demand case. The high energy demand case incorporates relatively high economic/demographic growth and climate change impacts, and relatively low electricity rates and self-generation impacts. The low energy demand case includes lower economic/demographic growth, higher assumed rates, and higher self-generation impacts. The mid case uses input assumptions at levels between the high and low cases. This report also describes hourly load forecasts, which incorporate residential time-of-use pricing, electric vehicle charging profiles, and photovoltaic system generation profiles. Finally, this report describes the process for development, and presents estimates, of savings through additional achievable energy efficiency and photovoltaic adoptions.