Building a Climate Change- Resilient Electricity System for Meeting California’s Energy and Environmental Goals

Responding to concerns regarding the environmental effects of the current energy resource
mix, significant research has focused on determining the future energy resources to meet
emissions reduction and environmental sustainability goals. Many of these studies focus on
various constraints, such as costs, grid operability requirements, and environmental
performance, and develop different plans for the rollout of energy resources between the
present and future years. However, these planning studies have not yet taken into account the
potential impact that changing climate may have on the availability and performance of key
energy resources that compose these plans. This project investigated climate change impacts
on three aspects of the energy system: 1) changes in hydropower generation due to altered
precipitation, streamflow, and runoff patterns; 2) changes in the availability of solar thermal
and geothermal power plant capacity due to shifting water availability; and 3) changes in the
residential and commercial electric building loads from increased temperatures. These impacts
would cause the proposed resource scenario for meeting 80 percent reduction in greenhouse
gas emissions by 2050 developed by the Energy and Environmental Economics PATHWAYS
study to deviate from meeting California’s emissions target and renewable energy resources.
The study found that the impacts of climate change on energy system performance could be
reduced by increasing the flexibility of the system to make more effective use of otherwise
excess renewable generation. This project collaborated with two related studies led by Energy
and Environmental Economics and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, who used the
outputs of these analyses to develop energy resource scenarios that are more resilient against
the impacts of climate change.