Midterm Reliability Analysis

This report provides the results of analyses conducted by CEC staff to inform decisions about the need for future resource procurement to support reliability for the midterm (2023 – 2026). The report addresses multiple questions associated with reliability over this period, including loss of load expectation modeling, assessment of risks to reliability from a growing amount of battery energy storage system resources on the grid, and an evaluation of additional thermal generation sources that could support reliability. The report is prepared for the California Public Utilities Commission to consider as part of their Integrated Resource Planning Proceeding (R.20-05-003) as they decide whether to adopt the preferred system plan by the end of 2021.