California Energy Commission staff analyzed supply and demand conditions for the Southern California Gas Company natural gas pipeline system for winter 2022–2023 to inform policy makers and the public about the risk of service interruptions. The system remains impaired, with two key pipelines unable to operate at design capacity. Underground storage facility operations also are necessarily impaired due to inventory restrictions at Aliso Canyon and work needed to comply with California Geologic Energy Management Division safety regulations. Recognizing these restrictions, staff assesses that the risk of service interruptions is lower this winter than in recent winters. This lowered risk is largely due to forecast demand being lower than in prior years. Specifically, staff projects zero curtailment on a winter day cold enough to occur once in 10 years and curtailment of about 280 million cubic feet per day of noncore load on an extremely cold day. Staff has confirmed this finding using peak-day gas balances, a stochastic hourly gas balance, and hydraulic simulations of gas system operations. Prices this winter are likely to remain at current levels, but consumers should expect higher prices during peak demand periods. This analysis features use of a monthly average condition forecast, and cold and extreme peak day natural gas demand forecasts. In addition, this analysis uses California Energy Commission gas demand forecast for the first time instead of the utilities California Gas Report.
