An Analytical Framework for Targeted Electrification and Strategic Gas Decommissioning: Identifying Potential Pilot Sites in Northern California’s East Bay Region

Building electrification is an essential component of California’s plan to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions. However, building electrification will significantly challenge the funding and cost recovery mechanisms for California’s gas distribution system. Strategies are needed to reduce gas system spending and manage rates for gas customers who have not or cannot make the switch to electric building equipment. This project poses the question: How can targeted building electrification paired with tactical gas decommissioning provide net gas system savings while promoting equity and meeting the needs of local communities?

To address this question, the project team:

• Developed a site selection framework for identifying candidate sites for targeted electrification and gas decommissioning, applied this framework to Ava Community Energy’s service territory, and identified candidate pilot sites.
• Performed a quantitative analysis of the benefits and costs of potential pilots.
• Conducted community outreach and education within those pilot communities.
• Produced a deployment plan outlining a framework for pilot project implementation.

The project team determined that targeted electrification and gas decommissioning can provide net benefits to the state and both gas and electric ratepayers. If projects like these are successfully implemented, which remains a big ”if” given upfront cost barriers, customer preferences, and regulatory challenges, these projects would help to support a managed transition for the gas distribution system. A number of policy and regulatory changes, along with higher levels of community and customer interest and support, will be necessary for targeted electrification and gas decommissioning to achieve the scale needed to provide significant reductions in gas system costs. The California Legislature, state agencies, and utilities collectively need to take action to address key issues like the time horizon for gas system planning, the historic obligation to serve, project funding, and how best to prioritize equity during this transition.