​​Benefits Associated with Projects and Technologies Supported by the Clean Transportation Program: 2023 Analysis​

The California Energy Commission’s (CEC’s) Clean Transportation Program (CTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects. This report improves upon the 2021 Analysis of Benefits Associated With Projects and Technologies Supported by the Clean Transportation Program, which focused on two components of benefit calculation: expected benefits and market transformation benefits. The “expected benefits” are defined as benefits that accrue because of the direct displacement of petroleum-based fuels or vehicle technologies. The “market transformation benefits” accrue because of CTP funding shifting the underlying market dynamics and accelerating the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. This report documents the updated methods used in the benefits analysis in the 2021 benefits report. Data collected from CTP projects funded from 2013 to the third quarter of 2023 are used to estimate the benefits between 2013 and 2035. In that time window, the CTP projects analyzed in this report, which reflect $1.04 billion in CEC funding, are estimated to result on average in 64 million gallons per year of petroleum reduction and 460,000 metric tons per year of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction in terms of expected benefits. Market transformation benefits are additive to the expected benefits and are estimated with high and low ranges for the 963 relevant projects evaluated. Conversely, between 2013 and 2035 the market transformation benefits’ petroleum reductions are on average estimated as ranging from 4 million to 11 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year, and GHG reductions from 74,000 to 238,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.