The California Energy Commission (CEC) presents thisWinter 2025–2026 California Gas Reliability Assessment (Winter Assessment) that assesses the risk of gas service curtailment risk to customers who receive gas service from Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) and the Southern California Gas Company/San Diego Gas and Electric (SoCalGas). Using CEC-produced demand forecasts and estimates of available supplies, the CEC finds that the risk of curtailment for core customers (mainly residential and small commercial) and noncore customers (large users including factories and power plants) is low assuming continued available estimated winter supplies and forecasted demand for winter 2025–2026.
The CEC staff analysis in this report finds that on extremely cold winter days, the PG&E gas system cannot meet demand without withdrawals from underground gas storage facilities owned by independent storage providers that are generally transactions between gas marketers representing power plants and other large customers and the storage facility. Other measures can be deployed to address the shortfall including PG&E procuring gas from the independent storage providers and issuing operational flow orders during system imbalances.
CEC staff estimates that SoCalGas can meet extremely cold day demands without curtailment of noncore customers due to having enough pipeline supply and storage withdrawal capacity. However, there are risks for both gas utility systems, including the potential impacts of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance events on key mainlines and storage facilities.
