2023 Demand Scenarios Project

This report presents the results of the second cycle of the California Energy Commission’s Demand Scenarios Project. The Demand Scenarios Project assesses long-term statewide energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions through 2050. Traditional demand forecasting focuses on a 10-to-15-year horizon. Meeting California’s climate goals, however, requires a longer-term planning approach that looks forward to 2050. To support this, the Demand Scenarios Project explores how energy usage might change through 2050 under different policy assumptions. The three primary scenarios — Reference, Policy, and Enhanced Policy — provide energy demand projections to assess the impact of current regulations, emerging policies, and fuel substitution on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Using a combination of in-house tools and the EnergyPATHWAYS model, the project analyzes energy demand across all major sectors and fuel types.

The results show a consistent decline in fossil fuel use, particularly gasoline, diesel, and natural gas, and a steady rise in electricity and hydrogen demand, driven by building and transportation electrification. Notably, electricity loads shift toward the winter season, reflecting increased space heating demand. While these demand side scenarios help identify where progress is being made, they also reveal policy insights between potential emissions and reduction targets for 2045 and 2050. The report underscores the need for better data, coordination, and modeling to guide the state’s transition to a low-carbon energy future.