Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) Meeting: California Transportation Energy Demand Forecast Vehicle Attributes

To interested parties:

Please join us for an upcoming Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG) meeting to review and discuss preliminary vehicle attributes for the 2021 Transportation Energy Demand Forecast (TEDF) to be held on May 5, 2021 from 1:00pm-5:00pm.

For the 2021 TEDF, staff are updating inputs and assumptions based on more recent data, research, and new policies. Scenarios will be developed to assess impacts of Executive Order N-79-20 calling for all new light-duty vehicle sales to be zero emission starting in 2035. Vehicle attributes, such as range and fuel economy, are being updated based on manufacturer announcements about zero emission vehicle (ZEV) offerings in future years, as well as updates to battery price—and resulting vehicle price—projections based on staff analysis of published research on the topic. The forecast will also consider the changes to federal tax credit and state rebate assumptions. In the medium- and heavy-duty sector, staff hopes to solicit feedback on incorporating infrastructure cost.

Energy Commission staff will facilitate discussion on the topics listed below. During the meeting, stakeholders are encouraged to ask questions, offer other resources, and provide critical feedback.

• Preliminary vehicle attributes, including updates on
  • Forecast battery prices
  • ZEV prices
  • Electric vehicle range
  • Fuel economy
  • Policy assumptions, such as the federal tax credit and state rebate and CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation
  • Refueling availability and time
• New scenarios
  • A compliance scenario incorporating the 2035 ZEV sales mandate for light-duty vehicles
  • GHG mitigation scenarios to look at the energy impacts of CARB’s Mobile Source Strategy
• Updated vehicle categorization, including by prestige level for light-duty vehicles and including delivery trucks for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles

An agenda and materials will be posted in advance of the May 5 webinar to the DAWG webpage: https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/topics/energy-assessment/demand-analysis-working-group-dawg.

The workshop will be held via webinar-only.

Agenda

• May 5 Workshop Agenda

Presentations

• Introduction
• Light-Duty Vehicle Attribute Projections_ 2020–2035
• 2020 Light-Duty ZEV Update​ & Vehicle Reclassification​​
• Light-Duty Vehicle Battery Price Forecast
• Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Reclassification
• AB 2127 Off-Road Charging Assessment
• Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Attributes

Please direct questions to: Heidi Javanbakht at Heidi.Javanbakht@energy.ca.gov or Mark Palmere at Mark.Palmere@energy.ca.gov.