Next Generation Science and Wildfire Risk Forecast Models for Enhanced Electricity Grid Resiliency (Pyregence)

California is facing growing wildfire risks that threaten communities, natural resources, and the reliability of the state’s electricity system. Hotter temperatures, longer dry seasons, and expanding development in fire-prone areas have collectively increased the likelihood of extreme wildfires, which can damage electric power infrastructure, disrupt service, and raise costs for utility customers. California’s climate and energy policies call for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting public safety, and strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure, which in turn are increasing demands on utilities and regulators to better understand and manage wildfire risks.

This research project was designed to address these challenges by improving the science and tools used to anticipate wildfire behavior and its impacts on the state’s electricity grid. This work responds to regulatory needs identified in California Public Utilities Commission proceedings, which emphasize proactive wildfire mitigation, informed planning, and costeffective investment in grid safety. The project brought together researchers, utilities, and public agencies to develop more accurate and timely ways to assess wildfire risk over both short- and long-term timeframes.

Key project outcomes include improved methods to identify dangerous fire weather, better understanding of how dead and dry vegetation affects fire behavior, and the development of a publicly accessible forecasting platform that provides near-term wildfire risk and spreads information. The project also produced long-range projections showing how wildfire patterns may change under future climate and land-management conditions, supporting long-term grid planning and climate resilience.

Together, these results provide utilities, regulators, and policymakers with actionable information to reduce wildfire impacts, support safer grid operations, and help meet California’s energy, conservation, and climate goals while protecting ratepayers and communities.