The CEC has two key roles in long-term energy planning, assessments of the future electricity demand and supply situation. For demand, the CEC produces Demand Scenarios is a comprehensive examination of demand-side fuel shifts, supply-side consequences of demand changes, and cross-cutting metrics such as greenhouse gas emissions and costs. This is a long-term horizon analysis, as opposed to the California Energy Demand forecast, that includes a variety of fuel types. The first long-term Demand Scenarios were adopted in 2022 and had a “high-electrification” theme. The CEC plans to expand the demand scenarios to include other themes, such as high biofuels and high hydrogen. These Demand Scenarios are being developed to support Senate Bill 100 (De Leòn, Chapter 312, Statute of 2018) analyses, and are of interest to other agencies as well.
The long-term electricity supply analyses center around the zero-carbon electric system goal of SB 100. The Energy Commission leads the interagency analytical efforts associated with the electricity system analysis. The analysis for the 2021 SB 100 Joint Agency report leaned on the RESOLVE model. RESOLVE is a capacity expansion model. Capacity expansion models are used to resource plans by optimizing resource selections based on a set of priorities and assumptions. The CEC, in coordination with the Joint Agencies, is in the initial stages of the 2025 SB 100 report. The supply analysis for this report will be expanded to include operational and reliability assessments of various system pathways to achieve the SB 100 zero-carbon electric system goal by 2045.
Long-Term Demand Scenarios
The Demand Scenario Development and Assessment project identifies energy demand out to 2050 for all fuel types, as well as GHG emissions, for alternative scenarios based on existing and near-term policies.
Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency and Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution Forecast
Annual energy impacts of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update.
Hourly energy impacts of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update, split amongst the major Utilities or Utility Planning Areas.
For more information on AAEE/AAFS please refer to the AAEE/AAFS Hourly Forecast accordion on Demand Side Modeling.
The RESOLVE California model is a capacity expansion model that selects the least-cost mix of new generating resources required to meet future electricity demand under certain constraints including GHG emissions
Planning for SB 100 Goals
The above modeling and analyses support the state’s planning to meet the targets set in SB 100. Find more details on SB 100 Joint Agency Report.