The CEC has two key roles in long-term energy planning, assessments of the future electricity demand and supply situation. For demand, the CEC produces Demand Scenarios which assesses long-term statewide energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions through 2050. Traditional demand forecasting focuses on a 10-to-15-year horizon. Meeting California’s climate goals, however, requires a longer-term planning approach that looks forward to 2050. To support this, the Demand Scenarios Project explores how energy usage might change through 2050 under different policy assumptions. The three primary scenarios: Reference, Policy, and Enhanced Policy provide energy demand projections to assess the impact of current regulations, emerging policies, and fuel substitution on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Using a combination of in-house tools and the EnergyPATHWAYS model, the project analyzes energy demand across all major sectors and fuel types.
The long-term electricity supply analyses center around the zero-carbon electric system goal of SB 100. The Energy Commission leads the interagency analytical efforts associated with the electricity system analysis. The analysis for the 2021 SB 100 Joint Agency report leaned on the RESOLVE model. RESOLVE is a capacity expansion model. Capacity expansion models are used to resource plans by optimizing resource selections based on a set of priorities and assumptions. The CEC, in coordination with the Joint Agencies, is in the initial stages of the 2025 SB 100 report. The supply analysis for this report will be expanded to include operational and reliability assessments of various system pathways to achieve the SB 100 zero-carbon electric system goal by 2045.
Long-Term Demand Scenarios
This report presents the results of the second cycle of the California Energy Commission’s Demand Scenarios Project. The results show a consistent decline in fossil fuel use, particularly gasoline, diesel, and natural gas, and a steady rise in electricity and hydrogen demand, driven by building and transportation electrification.
The Demand Scenario Development and Assessment project identifies energy demand out to 2050 for all fuel types, as well as GHG emissions, for alternative scenarios based on existing and near-term policies.
Long Term Resource Supply Analyses
The RESOLVE California model is a capacity expansion model that selects the least-cost mix of new generating resources required to meet future electricity demand under certain constraints including GHG emissions.
Planning for SB 100 Goals
The above modeling and analyses support the state’s planning to meet the targets set in SB 100. Find more details on SB 100 Joint Agency Report.