Demand Side Modeling

Development of the CEC’s end-user electricity and gas demand forecast.

Demand-side modeling revolves around development of the CEC's end user electricity and gas demand forecasts. As part of each annual Integrated Energy Policy Report proceeding, the CEC develops 10-15 year forecasts of annual consumption and sales for a variety of customer sectors and utility planning areas, as well as forecasts of hourly and peak electric system load for select balancing areas. These forecasts include the projected impact of rates, self-generation, electric vehicle charging, and climate change. Scenarios are developed around "additional achievable" energy efficiency, fuel substitution, and transportation electrification impacts which may result from the State's emission-reduction strategies. These products directly inform a variety of state-sponsored system and reliability planning efforts, including Resource Adequacy, the California Public Utility Commission's Integrated Resource Plan, the California Independent System Operator's Transmission Planning Process.

Demand Side Forecast

Baseline forecasts of annual energy and peak electricity demand. These forecasts consider only programmatic impacts that are approved and funded and that have a detailed implementation plan. Baseline forecasts can be paired with “additional achievable” scenarios to create managed forecasts suitable for planning.

Electricity demand forecast results disaggregated to load-serving entities and balancing authorities consistent with the California Energy Commission's 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update.

Electricity sales projections by CEC forecast sector and zone. The data contains forecasts for each of the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Managed Forecasts. More details regarding the CEC managed forecasts can be found in Chapter 3 of the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report. *CEC planning areas “VEA” and “OTHER” are omitted from the data.

Retail electricity rate forecasts developed for the California Energy Demand Forecast Update, 2022 -2035, and supporting data.

Factors which account for electric grid power losses for the transmission and distribution system. For each factor: [load at customer meter] x [factor] = [BA system load]

Behind the Meter Distributed Generation Forecast

Forecasted and historic estimates of self-generation nameplate capacity and energy generation by technology type. For the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Demand Forecast, historic estimates end in calendar year 2021.

Transportation Forecast

Annual statewide stock forecast of zero-emission vehicles by duty for the baseline forecast and additional achievable transportation electrification (AATE) scenario 2 and scenario 3, which were included in the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update.

Annual transportation electricity demand across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

Annual vehicle stock across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

Annual transportation energy demand across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast. Considers electricity and other transportation fuels.

Fuel prices used for the transportation energy demand forecast. These prices influence travel and vehicle purchase decisions in vehicle choice models.

Transportation electrification load shapes in 24-hour format for several example days in various forecast year seasons and utility territories.

Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency and Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution Forecast

Annual energy impacts of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update.

Long-Term Demand Scenarios

The Demand Scenario Development and Assessment project identifies energy demand out to 2050 for all fuel types, as well as GHG emissions, for alternative scenarios based on existing and near-term policies.

Forecasts and System Planning

Contact

Energy Assessments Division
EAD@energy.ca.gov