Supply Side Modeling

The Supply Analysis Branch performs analyses and provides policy expertise on a ranges of electricity and natural gas supply considerations. The Branch maintains a production cost model of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council-wide electricity system, and uses multiple models to assess reliability within California. The findings from the analysis inform energy policy, identify natural gas demand in the power sector, and assess electricity system performance under various scenarios. This branch also leads the modeling work related to California’s goals for transitioning to a zero-carbon electricity system, as set by Senate Bill 100 (De León, Chapter 312, Statutes of 2018). Further, the Branch monitors and assesses natural gas trends in North America and California, including natural gas prices and rates, production and supply, pipeline and storage infrastructure, and consumption. An econometric model of the North American natural gas markets produces natural gas price projections that are published in the CEC's Integrated Energy Policy Report. The CEC also conducts hydraulic modeling of the natural gas system in California to inform gas reliability planning.