The California Energy Demand (CED) 2023 Forecast is a full forecast of electricity and gas demand developed for the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR). CED 2023 incorporated updates to economic and demographic drivers, anticipated electricity and gas rates, and the most recent historical consumption data. The forecast window was extended to 2040 and new models for behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) generation and residential consumption were implemented. Additional achievable scenarios were updated with the latest historical and policy trends. The hourly and peak demand electricity forecast was also updated. These results were adopted by the Energy Commission at a business meeting on February 14, 2024.
Demand Side Forecast
Baseline forecasts of annual energy and peak electricity demand. These forecasts consider only programmatic impacts that are approved and funded and that have a detailed implementation plan. Baseline forecasts can be paired with “additional achievable” scenarios to create managed forecasts suitable for planning.
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - PGE
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - SCE
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - SDGE
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - NCNC
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - LADWP
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - BUGL
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - IID
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - SMUD
- CED 2023 Baseline Forecast - Total State
- CED 2023 Baseline Natural Gas Forecast
Electricity demand forecast results disaggregated to load-serving entities and balancing authorities consistent with the California Energy Commission's 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).
Hourly forecast results developed as part of the California Energy Commission's 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - CAISO - Planning Scenario - Corrected
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - CAISO - Local Reliability - Corrected
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - PGE - Planning Scenario - Corrected
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - PGE - Local Reliability - Corrected
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - SCE - Planning Scenario - Corrected
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - SCE - Local Reliability - Corrected
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - SDGE - Planning Scenario - Corrected
- CED 2023 Hourly Forecast - SDGE - Local Reliability - Corrected
- CED 2023 Peak Forecast - Corrected
Electricity and gas sales projections by CEC forecast sector and planning area. The data contains forecasts for each of the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report Managed Forecasts. More details regarding the CEC managed forecasts can be found in Chapter 3 of the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report. *CEC planning areas “VEA” and “OTHER” are omitted from the data.
Retail electricity and gas rate forecasts developed for the California Energy Demand Forecast, 2023 -2040, and supporting data.
Factors which account for electric grid power losses for the transmission and distribution system. For each factor: [load at customer meter] x [factor] = [BA system load].
Behind the Meter Distributed Generation Forecast
Forecasted and historic estimates of self-generation nameplate capacity and energy generation by technology type. For the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report Demand Forecast, historic estimates end in calendar year 2022.
Consultant report on the model used to forecast distributed generation for the 2023 IEPR Demand Forecast.
Transportation Forecast
Annual statewide stock forecast of zero-emission vehicles by duty for the baseline forecast and additional achievable transportation electrification (AATE) and scenario 3, which was included in the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report.
Annual transportation electricity demand across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.
Annual vehicle stock across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.
Annual transportation energy demand across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast. Considers electricity and other transportation fuels.
Fuel prices used for the transportation energy demand forecast. These prices influence travel and vehicle purchase decisions in vehicle choice models.
Transportation electrification load shapes in 24-hour format for several example days in various forecast year seasons and utility territories.
Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency and Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution Forecast
Annual energy impacts of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report.
Hourly energy impacts of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report, split amongst the major Utilities or Utility Planning Areas.
Planning Scenario Hourly Forecasts
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - PGE Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - SCE Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - SDGE Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - NCNC Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - LADWP Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - BUGL Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - IID Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Planning Scenario (AAEE 3 and AAFS 3) - SMUD Utility - Corrected
Local Reliability Scenario Hourly Forecasts
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - PGE Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - SCE Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - SDGE Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - NCNC Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - LADWP Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - BUGL Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - IID Planning Area - Corrected
- 2023 IEPR Local Reliability (AAEE 2 and AAFS 4) - SMUD Utility - Corrected
Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenaerio Hourly Forecasts
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - PGE Planning Area - Corrected
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - SCE Planning Area - Corrected
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - SDGE Planning Area - Corrected
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - NCNC Planning Area - Corrected
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - LADWP Planning Area - Corrected
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - BUGL Planning Area - Corrected
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - IID Planning Area - Corrected
- Gradual Transformation AAFS Scenario Hourly Impacts - SMUD Utility - Corrected