CED 2023 Demand Side Modeling

Products from the CED 2023 Forecast.

The California Energy Demand (CED) 2023 Forecast is a full forecast of electricity and gas demand developed for the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR). CED 2023 incorporated updates to economic and demographic drivers, anticipated electricity and gas rates, and the most recent historical consumption data. The forecast window was extended to 2040 and new models for behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) generation and residential consumption were implemented. Additional achievable scenarios were updated with the latest historical and policy trends. The hourly and peak demand electricity forecast was also updated. These results were adopted by the Energy Commission at a business meeting on February 14, 2024.

Demand Side Forecast

Baseline forecasts of annual energy and peak electricity demand. These forecasts consider only programmatic impacts that are approved and funded and that have a detailed implementation plan. Baseline forecasts can be paired with “additional achievable” scenarios to create managed forecasts suitable for planning.

Electricity demand forecast results disaggregated to load-serving entities and balancing authorities consistent with the California Energy Commission's 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).

Electricity and gas sales projections by CEC forecast sector and planning area. The data contains forecasts for each of the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report Managed Forecasts. More details regarding the CEC managed forecasts can be found in Chapter 3 of the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report. *CEC planning areas “VEA” and “OTHER” are omitted from the data.

Retail electricity and gas rate forecasts developed for the California Energy Demand Forecast, 2023 -2040, and supporting data.

Factors which account for electric grid power losses for the transmission and distribution system. For each factor: [load at customer meter] x [factor] = [BA system load].

Behind the Meter Distributed Generation Forecast

Forecasted and historic estimates of self-generation nameplate capacity and energy generation by technology type. For the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report Demand Forecast, historic estimates end in calendar year 2022.

Transportation Forecast

Annual statewide stock forecast of zero-emission vehicles by duty for the baseline forecast and additional achievable transportation electrification (AATE) and scenario 3, which was included in the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report.

Annual transportation electricity demand across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

Annual vehicle stock across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

Annual transportation energy demand across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast. Considers electricity and other transportation fuels.

Fuel prices used for the transportation energy demand forecast. These prices influence travel and vehicle purchase decisions in vehicle choice models.

Transportation electrification load shapes in 24-hour format for several example days in various forecast year seasons and utility territories.

Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency and Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution Forecast

Annual energy impacts of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2023 Integrated Energy Policy Report.

Demand Side Modeling

Contact

Energy Assessments Division
EAD@energy.ca.gov