CEDU 2024 Demand Side Modeling

Products from the CEDU 2024 Forecast

The California Energy Demand Update (CEDU) 2024 Forecast is an update of electricity demand developed for the 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update. CEDU 2024 incorporated the most recent historical electricity sales data, updates to economic and demographic drivers and anticipated electricity rates. Model revisions and new data for behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) generation, transportation electrification and data centers were implemented. Additional achievable scenarios for fuel substitution and transportation electrification were updated with the latest historical and policy trends. These changes were applied to the annual electricity forecast and the hourly and peak demand electricity forecasts.

The results were adopted by the Energy Commission at a business meeting on January 21, 2025. The adopted forecast is for the years 2024 to 2040, however some results for years 2024 to 2050 are included here for other planning purposes.

Demand Side Forecast

Baseline forecasts of annual energy and peak electricity demand to 2040. These forecasts consider only programmatic impacts that are approved and funded and that have a detailed implementation plan. Baseline forecasts can be paired with “additional achievable” scenarios to create managed forecasts suitable for planning.

Electricity sales projections by CEC forecast sector and planning area to 2050. The data contains forecasts for each of the 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update Managed Forecasts. More details regarding the CEC managed forecasts can be found in Chapter 3 of the 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update. CEC planning areas “VEA” and “OTHER” are omitted from the data.

Electricity demand forecast results to 2040, disaggregated to load-serving entities and balancing authorities consistent with the California Energy Commission's 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update.

Electricity demand forecast results extended to 2050, disaggregated to load-serving entities and balancing authorities consistent with the California Energy Commission's 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update.

Retail electricity rate forecasts to 2050 developed for the California Energy Demand Update Forecast, 2024 -2040 and supporting data.

Factors which account for electric grid power losses for the transmission and distribution system. For each factor: [load at customer meter] x [factor] = [BA system load]

Behind the Meter Distributed Generation Forecast

Transportation Forecast

Annual statewide stock forecast of vehicles by duty for the baseline forecast and additional achievable transportation electrification (AATE) scenario 3, which was included in the 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update.

  • Statewide Vehicle Populations

Annual transportation electricity demand across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

  • Utility Region Forecast - PEV Energy

Annual vehicle stock across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

  • Utility Region Forecast – PEV Stock

Annual transportation energy demand across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast. Considers electricity and other transportation fuels.

  • Statewide Fuel Demand Forecast

Fuel prices used for the transportation energy demand forecast. These prices influence travel and vehicle purchase decisions in vehicle choice models.

  • Fuel Price Forecast

Transportation electrification load shapes in 24-hour format for several example days in various forecast year seasons and utility territories.

  • Load Shapes

Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency and Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution Forecast

Annual energy impacts (to 2050) of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update.

Hourly energy impacts (to 2040) of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update, separated into five distinct end uses and split amongst the major Utilities or Utility Planning Areas.

Planning Scenario HOURLY FORECASTS

Local Reliability Scenario HOURLY FORECASTS

Hourly energy impacts (to 2050) of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results, split amongst the major Utilities or Utility Planning Areas.

Planning Scenario HOURLY FORECASTS

Local Reliability Scenario HOURLY FORECASTS

Demand Side Modeling

Contact

Energy Assessments Division
EAD@energy.ca.gov