CEDU 2022 Demand Side Modeling

Products from the CEDU 2022 Forecast.

The California Energy Demand Update (CEDU) 2022 Forecast was an update of electricity demand developed for the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update. CEDU 2022 simplified the baseline forecast framework to a single “mid” case and implemented an “additional achievable” framework for transportation electricity demand. Scenario 4 of the additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) component was updated to add the CARB State Implementation Plan (SIP). Economic and demographic drivers were updated, as well as electricity rates, historical consumption data, and behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) adoption data. The hourly and peak demand electricity forecast was also updated.

Demand Side Forecast

Baseline forecasts of annual energy and peak electricity demand. These forecasts consider only programmatic impacts that are approved and funded and that have a detailed implementation plan. Baseline forecasts can be paired with “additional achievable” scenarios to create managed forecasts suitable for planning.

Electricity demand forecast results disaggregated to load-serving entities and balancing authorities consistent with the California Energy Commission's 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update.

Electricity sales projections by CEC forecast sector and zone. The data contains forecasts for each of the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Managed Forecasts. More details regarding the CEC managed forecasts can be found in Chapter 3 of the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report. *CEC planning areas “VEA” and “OTHER” are omitted from the data.

Retail electricity rate forecasts developed for the California Energy Demand Forecast Update, 2022 -2035, and supporting data.

Factors which account for electric grid power losses for the transmission and distribution system. For each factor: [load at customer meter] x [factor] = [BA system load]

Behind the Meter Distributed Generation Forecast

Forecasted and historic estimates of self-generation nameplate capacity and energy generation by technology type. For the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Demand Forecast, historic estimates end in calendar year 2021.

Transportation Forecast

Annual statewide stock forecast of zero-emission vehicles by duty for the baseline forecast and additional achievable transportation electrification (AATE) scenario 2 and scenario 3, which were included in the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update.

Annual transportation electricity demand across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

Annual vehicle stock across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

Annual transportation energy demand across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast. Considers electricity and other transportation fuels.

Fuel prices used for the transportation energy demand forecast. These prices influence travel and vehicle purchase decisions in vehicle choice models.

Transportation electrification load shapes in 24-hour format for several example days in various forecast year seasons and utility territories.

Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency and Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution Forecast

Annual energy impacts of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2022 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update.

Demand Side Modeling

Contact

Energy Assessments Division
EAD@energy.ca.gov