RFP-25-803 – Improvements to Modeling Climate Data in Demand Forecasting

To meet California’s energy goals and produce a forecast which accounts for climate change, there is an urgent need to incorporate improved climate data, downscaled projections, and advanced modeling techniques into electricity demand forecasting, system planning tools, and resilience analyses. This solicitation seeks a contractor to provide technical expertise, climate-data processing, and modeling support aligned with ongoing interagency research efforts to continue the work on improving methods for preparing global climate model (GCM) data inputs for use in the CA energy demand forecast. In the 2024 IEPR cycle, CEC staff supported the development of downscaled, bias-corrected projections over California at a 3-kilometer by 3-kilometer spatial resolution and translating the projections into inputs to be used in the forecast to calculate impacts on annual and hourly demand. While the 2023 forecast used hourly output from four Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models localized to specific weather stations used within the CEC’s forecast models, four additional WRF model runs became available during the 2024 cycle. Staff provided a comparison between the two vintages of model run, and the potential impacts of using the new model results which suggest a significantly warmer climate. These findings result in higher loads if used in the forecast. The 2024 and 2025 IEPR cycles have continued to use the initial WRF run data, but work has continued to understand potential ways to incorporate the new WRF model data. This includes analyzing impacts on peak demand, and average level of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) from the initial and new WRF runs.