CED 2025 Demand Side Modeling

Products from the CED 2025 Forecast

The California Energy Demand (CED) 2025 Forecast is a full forecast of electricity and gas demand developed for the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).

CED 2025 incorporated the most recent historical electricity and gas sales data, updates to economic and demographic drivers and anticipated electricity and gas rates. Model revisions and new data for behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) generation, transportation electrification and data centers were implemented, and in some cases, models were updated to account for recent policy changes. Additional achievable scenarios for energy efficiency, fuel substitution and transportation electrification were updated with the latest historical and policy trends. Energization requests received from utilities, referred to as “known loads” were considered for some scenarios. These changes were applied to the annual electricity and gas forecasts and the hourly and peak demand electricity forecasts.

The results were adopted by the Energy Commission at a business meeting on January 21, 2026. The adopted forecast is for the years 2025 to 2045, however some results for years 2025 to 2050 are included here for other planning purposes.

Demand Side Forecast

Baseline forecasts of annual energy and peak electricity demand to 2045 are published in the forms below. These forecasts consider only programmatic impacts that are approved and funded and that have a detailed implementation plan. Baseline forecasts can be paired with “additional achievable” scenarios to create managed forecasts suitable for planning.

Electricity sales projections by CEC forecast sector and planning area to 2050. The data contains forecasts for each of the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Managed Forecasts. More details regarding the CEC managed forecasts can be found in Chapter 1 of the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR). The CEC planning area “OTHER” is omitted from the data, and the sales in the “SMUD” planning area are also included in the “NCNC” planning area.

Electricity demand forecast results to 2050, disaggregated to load-serving entities and balancing authorities consistent with the California Energy Commission's 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).


Per the 2025 IEPR Single Forecast Set Agreement, electricity demand forecast results from the 2024 IEPR Update Planning Forecast were reallocated to LSE/BA for the purposes of Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) and Transmission Bulk System Planning. Only Form 1.1c has been updated for this revised version.

Retail electricity and gas rate forecasts to 2050 developed for the California Energy Demand Forecast, 2025 -2050 and supporting data.

Factors which account for electric grid power losses for the transmission and distribution system. For each factor: [load at customer meter] x [factor] = [BA system load]

Weights used to map data from individual weather stations to CEC Planning Areas and Forecast Zones.

Supporting documentation for the annual and hourly demand forecasts.

Modeling Overview and Forecast Results

Data Centers and Known Loads

Economic & Demographic Updates

Rates Forecasts

Behind the Meter Distributed Generation Forecast

Historic and forecasted (to 2050) estimates of self-generation nameplate capacity and energy generation by technology type. For the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Demand Forecast, historic estimates end in calendar year 2024.

Transportation Forecast

Annual statewide stock forecast of vehicles by duty for the baseline forecast and additional achievable transportation electrification (AATE) scenario 3, which was included in the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).

  • Statewide Vehicle Populations (March 2026)

Annual transportation electricity demand across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

  • Utility Region Forecast - PEV Energy (March 2026)

Annual vehicle stock across various utility territory regions, as well as across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast.

  • Utility Region Forecast – PEV Stock (March 2026)

Annual transportation energy demand across the various planning scenarios and baseline forecast. Considers electricity and other transportation fuels.

  • Statewide Fuel Demand Forecast (March 2026)

Fuel prices used for the transportation energy demand forecast. These prices influence travel and vehicle purchase decisions in vehicle choice models.

  • Fuel Price Forecast (March 2026)

Transportation electrification load shapes in 24-hour format for several example days in various forecast year seasons and utility territories.

  • Load Shapes (March 2026)

Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency and Additional Achievable Fuel Substitution Forecast

Annual energy impacts (to 2050) of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).

Hourly energy impacts (to 2050) of the additional achievable energy efficiency (AAEE) and additional achievable fuel substitution (AAFS) scenario results that were used during the 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR), separated into five distinct end uses and split amongst the major Utilities or Utility Planning Areas

Planning Scenario HOURLY FORECASTS

Local Reliability Scenario HOURLY FORECASTS

Supporting documentation for the AAEE and AAFS forecasts.

Demand Side Modeling